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Quel impact des nouveaux spéculateurs sur les prix agricoles ? Une analyse empirique des fonds d’investissement

Author

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  • Jean Cordier

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

  • Alexandre Gohin

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

Abstract

La financiarisation des marchés agricoles est un fait ancien. Le fait nouveau, à la fin des années 2000, est le développement fulgurant du montant des investissements par de nouveaux types d'opérateurs utilisant des instruments innovants. L'augmentation des investissements dits spéculatifs est concomitante avec la forte hausse des prix en 2007-08 et avec l'augmentation de la volatilité implicite sur les marchés agricoles de référence. Une controverse s'est alors développée sur la responsabilité des nouveaux fonds d'investissement, avec comme conséquence la volonté publique de réguler les marchés de matières premières, les produits agricoles en particulier. Le point culminant de la réflexion politique mondiale correspond à la réunion du G-20 en France début novembre 2011, point précédé d'un G-20 agricole trois mois plus tôt. L'article explore l'hypothèse de cette responsabilité en décomposant les relations de causalité théoriques puis en testant leur existence sur la base de données publiques mais non utilisées sur le plan académique à notre connaissance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Cordier & Alexandre Gohin, 2011. "Quel impact des nouveaux spéculateurs sur les prix agricoles ? Une analyse empirique des fonds d’investissement," Post-Print hal-01462701, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01462701
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01462701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul H. Cootner, 1960. "Returns to Speculators: Telser versus Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 396-396.
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    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    6. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Salim Hitouche & Hai Vu Pham & Fatima Brabez, 2019. "Facteurs déterminant l'implication des opérateurs dans une politique de stockage incitative : Cas du dispositif de régulation Syrpalac en Algérie," Post-Print hal-02942370, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatilité; prix; agriculture; marché à terme; fonds indiciel; spéculation; agricultural product; empirical method; marché agricole; fonction d'investissement; volatilité des prix; produit agricole; matière première alimentaire; méthode empirique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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