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The Pricing Of Degree-Day Weather Options

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  • Turvey, Calum G.

Abstract

This paper presents a model and framework for pricing degree-day weather derivatives when the weather variable is a non-traded asset. Using daily weather data from 1840-1996 it is shown that a degree-day weather index exhibits stable volatility and satisfies the random walk hypothesis. The paper compares the options prices from the recommended model and compares it to a typical insurance-type model. The results show that the insurance model overprices the option value at-the-money and this may explain why the bid-ask spreads in the weather derivatives market is sometimes very large.

Suggested Citation

  • Turvey, Calum G., 2001. "The Pricing Of Degree-Day Weather Options," Working Papers 34109, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34109
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.34109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    2. M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308, March.
    3. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    4. Calum G. Turvey, 2001. "Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in Agriculture," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 333-351.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    8. Turvey, Calum G., 1999. "Weather Derivatives And Specific Event Risk," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21550, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    10. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2002. "Weather Derivatives: Managing Risk With Market-Based Instruments," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19074, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Kellner, Ulla & Musshoff, Oliver, 2011. "Precipitation or water capacity indices? An analysis of the benefits of alternative underlyings for index insurance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(8), pages 645-653, October.
    3. Schmitz, B. & Starp, M., 2005. "Wetterderivate zur Absicherung des Energiekostenrisikos im Unterglasanbau," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 40, March.
    4. Mafoua, Edouard, 2003. "Weather Insurance To Protect Specialty Crops Against Costs Of Irrigation In Drought Years," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21922, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "Insuring Heat Related Risks In Agriculture With Degree-Day Weather Derivatives," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19896, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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