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Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries

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  • Mr. Christian H Ebeke
  • Miss Dilan Ölcer

Abstract

Focusing on Low-Income Countries, we investigate the behavior of fiscal variables during and after elections. The results indicate that during election years, government consumption significantly increases and leads to higher fiscal deficits. During the two years following elections, the fiscal adjustment takes the form of increased revenue mobilization in trade taxes and cuts to government investment, with no significant cuts in government consumption. Using a new dataset on national fiscal rules and IMF programs, we find that both the presence of fiscal rules and IMF programs help dampen the magnitude of the political budget cycle in LICs. We conclude that elections not only imply a macroeconomic cost when they take place but also trigger a painful fiscal adjustment in which public investment is largely sacrificed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Dilan Ölcer, 2013. "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/153, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/153
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    3. Urbain T. Yogo & Martine M. Ngo Njib, 2018. "Political Competition and Tax Revenues in Developing Countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 302-322, March.
    4. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Miss Estelle X Liu & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2015. "Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies," IMF Working Papers 2015/175, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Jaakkola, Niko & Spiro, Daniel & van Benthem, Arthur A., 2019. "Finders, keepers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 17-33.
    7. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    8. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    9. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
    10. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2018. "Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-92.
    11. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Defending election victory by attacking company revenues: The impact of elections on the international defense industry," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Collazos-Ortiz, María Antonieta & Wong, Pui-Hang, 2024. "The effects of resource rents and elections on human capital investment in Colombia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Paul Mosley & Blessing Chiripanhura, 2016. "The African Political Business Cycle: Varieties of Experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 917-932, July.
    14. Rommel, Tobias & Schaudt, Paul, 2020. "First impressions: How leader changes affect bilateral aid," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    16. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
    17. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    19. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2015/101, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    21. Urbain T. Yogo1 & Martine M & Ngo Njib, 2016. "Political competition and tax revenues in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Bharatee Dash & Angara Raja, 2014. "Do political determinants affect revenue collection? Evidence from the Indian states," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(3), pages 253-278, September.
    23. Khetrapal, Sonalini & Acharya, Arnab & Mills, Anne, 2019. "Assessment of the public-private-partnerships model of a national health insurance scheme in India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    24. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo.
    25. Boris Begović & Tanasije Marinković & Marko Paunović, 2017. "A Case For Introduction Of Numerical Fiscal Rules In Serbian Constitution," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 7-42, January -.

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