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The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model

Author

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  • Silvana Mima

    (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Criqui

    (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on the European energy sector, country by country, thus achieving progress in this direction. As far as energy demand is concerned, our main finding is that higher temperatures will mean that air-conditioning will consume more energy, reaching about 53 Mtoe by 2100 in a scenario with no strong emissions constraints (A1B). On the other hand less energy will be consumed for heating buildings, falling by about 65 Mtoe per year. This represents a net decrease in energy consumption of about 12 Mtoe by 2100. On the supply side, more constrained and expensive operating conditions for electric power plants will result in lower electricity generation by thermal, nuclear and hydro-power plants, with a maximum decrease of about 200 TWh in 2070 in the A1B scenario and 150 TWh in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). These effects vary a great deal across Europe and remain very dependent on the uncertainties affecting the results of the various climate models. This overall uncertainty may inhibit effective decisions. However the study offers insights not otherwise available without the full coverage of the energy system provided by POLES and climate features provided by climate models. The study identifies the main impacts of climate change in a strategic sector and provides an "order of magnitude" or "central trend" for these impacts, which might be useful in an adaptive policy of act, learn and then act again.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvana Mima & Patrick Criqui, 2015. "The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model," Post-Print hal-01149610, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01149610
    DOI: 10.1007/s10666-015-9449-3
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01149610v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    3. I. Mouratiadou & M. Bevione & D. L. Bijl & L. Drouet & M. Hejazi & S. Mima & M. Pehl & G. Luderer, 2018. "Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 91-106, March.
    4. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    6. Alban Kitous & Jacques Despres, 2017. "Assessment of the impact of climate change on residential energy demand for heating and cooling," JRC Research Reports JRC110191, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    9. Zheng, Shuguang & Huang, Guohe & Zhou, Xiong & Zhu, Xiaohang, 2020. "Climate-change impacts on electricity demands at a metropolitan scale: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    10. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    11. Lv, Fei & Wu, Qiong & Ren, Hongbo & Zhou, Weisheng & Li, Qifen, 2024. "On the design and analysis of long-term low-carbon roadmaps: A review and evaluation of available energy-economy-environment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    12. Handayani, Kamia & Filatova, Tatiana & Krozer, Yoram & Anugrah, Pinto, 2020. "Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

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