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Les bulles « robustes »

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

« Bulle » ou « pas bulle » ? La question taraude les observateurs et les acteurs du marché immobilier français. Nous examinons dans cet article les éléments empiriques et théoriques qui expliquent la hausse des prix récente et sa résistance aux retournements conjoncturels. En combinant la notion de bulle économique, les arguments de l'économie spatiale et une analyse d'économie politique, nous suggérons que la valorisation importante de l'immobilier en France est le résultat d'une logique rationnelle et conforte les intérêts des acteurs locaux. Dès lors, la forte valorisation peut être considérée comme une « bulle robuste », à même de résister à des chocs importants. Cette bulle organise un transfert intergénérationnel et peut avoir des effets positifs. Elle peut également renforcer la ségrégation spatiale, alimenter les inégalités territoriales et empêcher d'exploiter les économies d'agglomération possibles. L'analyse est détaillée sur la région Ile-de-France où ces phénomènes sont particulièrement marqués.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Les bulles « robustes »," Post-Print hal-00973073, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00973073
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.128.0277
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00973073v2
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