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Testing explosive behavior in the gold market

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Long

    (Tulane University)

  • Dingding Li

    (University of Windsor)

  • Qi Li

    (Capital University of Economics and Business
    Texas A&M University)

Abstract

This paper examines the explosive behavior in the gold market. Using the generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test introduced by Phillips et al. (Testing for multiple bubbles. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1843, 2012), we quantitatively examine the existence of explosive periods in the gold market during the period between 1968 and 2013. The date-stamping strategy associated with the test provides a real-time estimation for the origination and termination dates of each explosive period in the gold market, and several explosive periods, including both the famous 1980 explosion and the most recent 2011 explosion, are identified. Our results also demonstrate that, when multiple explosive periods exist within a specific time interval, the GSADF test is more accurate and effective in detecting them than the approach introduced by Phillips et al. (Int Econ Rev 52(1):201–226, 2011), which is relatively conservative. This paper provides further evidence that gold is the safe haven for assets under huge risk and the gold price reacts to political and economic uncertainties relatively faster than other selected commodities do.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Long & Dingding Li & Qi Li, 2016. "Testing explosive behavior in the gold market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1151-1164, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:51:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-015-1030-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-1030-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "Sup-ADF-style bubble-detection methods under test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 145-172, July.
    2. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis & Elena Andreou, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 306-339, January.
    3. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
    4. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    6. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2016. "The shine of precious metals around the global financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 717-738.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    8. Xiaojian Su & Cheng Peng & Zhike Lv & Chao Deng, 2022. "Do the Renminbi and Hong Kong dollar bubbles interact?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 312-319, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Explosive behavior; Gold price; Multiple bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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