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Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español

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  • José Francisco Bellod Redondo

Abstract

En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado inmobiliario español en el periodo 1989 – 2009. Hemos tratado de verificar si la intensa escalada de precios entre los años 1999 – 2007 obedece a la existencia de una burbuja especulativa o si es debida a factores fundamentales. Para ello hemos aplicado una triple metodología: test de cointegración, test no – estructurales ampliamente utilizados en la evaluación de los precios de los activos financieros (Test de Límite de la Varianza y Test de Supervivencia) y, finalmente, el Filtro de Kalman. Este último nos permite hacer un seguimiento trimestral del comportamiento especulativo de los compradores de vivienda. En conjunto, estos tests aportan evidencia empírica demostrativa de la existencia de una burbuja.

Suggested Citation

  • José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2011-05, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:erv:contri:y:2011:i:2011-05:13
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    Cited by:

    1. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2012. "Estructura De Poder Y Decadencia De La Caja De Ahorros Del Mediterráneo," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2012-08, August.
    2. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2012. "Estafa E Ingeniería Financiera: El Caso De La Caja De Ahorros Del Mediterráneo," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2012-08, August.
    3. Alberto Madrid & Luis A. Hierro, 2015. "Burbujas especulativas: el estado de una cuestión poco estudiada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 123-138, Septiembr.
    4. Contreras, Alex, 2013. "Estabilidad financiera y boom inmobiliario," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 153, pages 32-35.

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    Keywords

    Burbuja; Especulación; Vivienda; España;
    All these keywords.

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Real estate economics in Wikipedia English
    2. Gelembung ekonomi in Wikipedia Malay
    3. Burbuja inmobiliaria en España in Wikipedia Spanish
    4. Filtro de Kalman in Wikipedia Spanish
    5. Kinh tế học bất động sản in Wikipedia Vietnamese
    6. Gelembung hartanah in Wikipedia Malay
    7. اقتصاد املاک و مستغلات in Wikipedia Persian

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