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The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Gonçalo Pacheco-De-Almeida

    (Stern school of business - NYU - New York University [New York] - NYU - NYU System)

  • Peter Zemsky

    (INSEAD - Institut Européen d'administration des Affaires)

Abstract

We show that time-to-build, which creates a lag between the decision to invest and production, is an important element of industry structure. We study a multiperiod investment game where there is demand uncertainty. Adding time-to-build to the model alters the classic tradeoff between making strategic commitments and exploiting the option to wait. Furthermore, time-to-build gives rise to novel equilibria in which firms invest incrementally, which contrasts with most prior work on multiperiod investment games in which firms invest only once. We show how time-to-build affects firm heterogeneity, investment timing, the option value of waiting, the evolution of prices, and social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonçalo Pacheco-De-Almeida & Peter Zemsky, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00576375, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00576375
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lukach, R. & Kort, P.M. & Plasmans, J.E.J., 2007. "Strategic R&D with Knowledge Spillovers and Endogenous Time to Complete," Discussion Paper 2007-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Manish Popli & Ashutosh Sinha, 2014. "Determinants of early movers in cross-border merger and acquisition wave in an emerging market: A study of Indian firms," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1075-1099, December.
    3. Kuangyuan Zhang & Richard Olawoyin & Antonio Nieto & Andrew N. Kleit, 2018. "Risk of commodity price, production cost and time to build in resource economics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2521-2544, December.
    4. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "The impact of lead time on capital investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-164.
    5. Li, Xishu & Zuidwijk, Rob & de Koster, René & Sethi, Suresh, 2023. "Time for upgrades? In time for consumers and competition," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    6. Robert Salomon & Xavier Martin, 2008. "Learning, Knowledge Transfer, and Technology Implementation Performance: A Study of Time-to-Build in the Global Semiconductor Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(7), pages 1266-1280, July.
    7. Jyh-Bang Jou & Tan (Charlene) Lee, 2011. "Mutually exclusive investment with technical uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4723-4728.
    8. Pierre Lasserre & Moez Souissi, 2007. "It Takes Two to Tango. La fusion : exercice de deux options réelles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 178(2), pages 51-65.
    9. Aïd, René & Federico, Salvatore & Pham, Huyên & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2015. "Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 240-256.
    10. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    11. Jeon, Haejun, 2021. "Investment timing and capacity decisions with time-to-build in a duopoly market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Fei Shi, 2008. "Endogenous Timing with Demand Uncertainty," TWI Research Paper Series 30, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    13. Chen, Chia-Hui & Ishida, Junichiro & Mukherjee, Arijit, 2023. "Pioneer, early follower or late entrant: Entry dynamics with learning and market competition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Ching-Hung Chang & Qingqing Wu, 2021. "Board Networks and Corporate Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3618-3654, June.
    15. Olubanjo Michael Adetunji & Akintola Amos Owolabi, 2016. "Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 202-215, December.
    16. Taschini, Luca, 2021. "Flexibility premium of emissions permits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Haejun Jeon, 2023. "Time-to-build and capacity expansion," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 328(2), pages 1461-1494, September.
    18. Fredrik Armerin & Han-Suck Song, 2021. "A framework for modelling cash flow lags," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-13, October.

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