IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v8y2016i12p202-215.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments

Author

Listed:
  • Olubanjo Michael Adetunji
  • Akintola Amos Owolabi

Abstract

This paper argues that real options approach presents a better valuation approach for valuing infrastructure investments when compared to traditional discounted cash flow approach. Managerial flexibilities, in various forms of real options, can be incorporated into infrastructure projects to expand the projects¡¯ values. The paper identifies two key types of real options present in infrastructure investments as time-to-build and growth options and extends an earlier developed closed-form option valuation formula to value these options. The paper uses a numerical case of investment in railroad infrastructure project and shows that both types of real options, when embedded in infrastructure projects, add values to the projects. It however shows that the value of growth option is far more than the value of time-to-build option as growth options create opportunities for follow-on investments. It also shows that when the two options are present in an infrastructure investment, the time-to-build real option interacts with the growth option to reduce the latter¡¯s value.

Suggested Citation

  • Olubanjo Michael Adetunji & Akintola Amos Owolabi, 2016. "Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 202-215, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:202-215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/63160/34687
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/63160
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko, 2010. "A Bayesian Approach to Real Options: The Case of Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1949-1986, October.
    2. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1235-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pacheco-de-Almeida, Goncalo & Zemsky, Peter, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 166-182, Spring.
    5. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Yu-Hong Liu, 2010. "Valuation Of Compound Option When The Underlying Asset Is Non-Tradable," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 441-458.
    7. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    8. Han T.J. Smit, 1997. "Investment Analysis of Offshore Concessions in the Netherlands," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 26(2), Summer.
    9. Geske, Robert & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1985. "Valuation by Approximation: A Comparison of Alternative Option Valuation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 45-71, March.
    10. Marcus Schulmerich, 2005. "Real Options Valuation," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-28512-0, October.
    11. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    12. Sigbjørn Sødal & Steen Koekebakker & Roar Adland, 2009. "Value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(22), pages 2793-2807.
    13. Gonçalo Pacheco-De-Almeida & Peter Zemsky, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00576375, HAL.
    14. Rose, Simon, 1998. "Valuation of Interacting Real Options in a Tollroad Infrastructure Project," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 711-723.
    15. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    17. Panayi, Sylvia & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1998. "Multi-stage Real Options: The Cases of Information Technology Infrastructure and International Bank Expansion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 675-692.
    18. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    19. Yu-Lin Huang & Shih-Pei Chou, 2006. "Valuation of the minimum revenue guarantee and the option to abandon in BOT infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 379-389.
    20. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Polat, Levent & Battal, Unal (Ãœnal), 2021. "Airport infrastructure investments and valuing expansion decisions using the compound real option approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Raisa Pérez-Vas & Félix Puime Guillén & Joaquín Enríquez-Díaz, 2021. "Valuation of a Company Producing and Trading Seaweed for Human Consumption: Classical Methods vs. Real Options," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, October.
    3. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    4. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    5. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    6. Yu-Lin Huang & Chai-Chi Pi, 2009. "Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments: a sequential compound option approach," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 653-666.
    7. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Coggins, Jay S. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 1998. "An Arbitrage-Free Approach to Quasi-Option Value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 103-125, March.
    9. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    10. Martins, José & Marques, Rui Cunha & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira, 2014. "Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-80.
    11. Davis, Graham A., 1998. "Estimating Volatility and Dividend Yield When Valuing Real Options to Invest or Abandon," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 725-754.
    12. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9845 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Akamatsu, Takashi & Nagae, Takeshi, 2011. "A network of options: Evaluating complex interdependent decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 714-729, May.
    17. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    18. Michele Moretto & Chiara D’Alpaos, 2004. "The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis," Working Papers 2004.140, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Bengtsson, Jens, 2001. "Manufacturing flexibility and real options: A review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-3), pages 213-224, December.
    20. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital budgeting; infrastructures; real options; time-to-build option; growth option;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:202-215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.