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Power system planning in the energy transition era: the case of Vietnam's Power Development Plan 8

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This review examines Vietnam's eighth Power Development Plan (PDP8), analyzing how it reveals tensions between traditional energy planning concepts and emerging realities. PDP8 aimed to balance renewable energy and natural gas priorities amidst Vietnam's rapidly changing energy landscape. The planning process struggled to incorporate uncertainties like technology cost declines and global energy crises. Although following a conventional optimization approach, PDP8 underwent repeated delays and pivots, pointing to misalignment between rational planning ideals and implementation constraints. The case study highlights the limitations of 'plan to build' methods focused on rigid engineering blueprints. Instead, Vietnam's energy transition requires strategic approaches that embrace flexibility and scenario analysis. Based on years of participative observation, two interview surveys, and extensive corpus analysis, the review traces PDP8's evolution towards more open-ended strategies. While still detailing infrastructure projects, PDP8 defines adaptive implementation mechanisms and conditional goals dependent on external finance. This shift from project lists to navigational thinking illustrates the need for energy planning to incorporate uncertainty and maintain the capacity to adjust. PDP8 represents a transitional compromise between traditional ten-year planning and emerging 'plan to drive' concepts focused on navigating change with annual updates to the Plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong, 2024. "Power system planning in the energy transition era: the case of Vietnam's Power Development Plan 8," CIRED Working Papers hal-04683709, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04683709
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04683709v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minh Ha-Duong, 2021. "Decentralized renewable energy broke Vietnam’s power planning logic," Working Papers hal-03197064, HAL.
    2. Ugo Bardi & Sgouris Sgouridis, 2017. "In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-5, December.
    3. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(2), pages 195-207, June.
    4. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    5. Helm, D R & Kay, J & Thompson, D J, 1988. "Energy policy and the role of the state in the market for energy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 41-61, February.
    6. W. P. Pauw & P. Castro & J. Pickering & S. Bhasin, 2020. "Conditional nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement: foothold for equity or Achilles heel?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 468-484, April.
    7. Minh Ha-Duong, 2024. "Vietnam at the dawn of its energy transition," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 115-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Power System Planning; Energy transition; Vietnam; Case study; Adaptative strategies;
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