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A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation

Author

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  • Stéphane Crépey

    (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

  • Noufel Frikha

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Azar Louzi

    (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

Abstract

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditional on the realization of future risk factors. Thus, the problem of estimating its VaR and ES is nested in nature and can be viewed as an instance of stochastic approximation problems with biased innovations. In this framework, for a prescribed accuracy ε, the optimal complexity of a nested stochastic approximation algorithm is shown to be of order ε−3. To estimate the VaR, our MLSA algorithm attains an optimal complexity of order ε−2−δ , where δ < 1 is some parameter depending on the integrability degree of the loss, while to estimate the ES, it achieves an optimal complexity of order ε−2 |ln ε|2. Numerical studies of the joint evolution of the error rate and the execution time demonstrate how our MLSA algorithm regains a significant amount of the performance lost due to the nested nature of the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Crépey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi, 2024. "A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04037328, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04037328
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04037328v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Albanese Claudio & Armenti Yannick & Crépey Stéphane, 2020. "XVA metrics for CCP optimization," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 37(1-2), pages 25-53, January.
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    5. O. Bardou & N. Frikha & G. Pagès, 2016. "CVaR HEDGING USING QUANTIZATION-BASED STOCHASTIC APPROXIMATION ALGORITHM," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 184-229, January.
    6. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    7. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Crépey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi & Gilles Pagès, 2023. "Asymptotic Error Analysis of Multilevel Stochastic Approximations for the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04304985, HAL.

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