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Multilevel nested simulation for efficient risk estimation

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  • Michael B. Giles
  • Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali

Abstract

We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for example, when estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio. We present a method that combines the idea of using Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) for nested expectations with the idea of adaptively selecting the number of samples in the approximation of the inner expectation, as proposed by (Broadie et al., 2011). We propose and analyse an algorithm that adaptively selects the number of inner samples on each MLMC level and prove that the resulting MLMC method with adaptive sampling has an $\mathcal{O}\left( \varepsilon^{-2}|\log\varepsilon|^2 \right)$ complexity to achieve a root mean-squared error $\varepsilon$. The theoretical analysis is verified by numerical experiments on a simple model problem. We also present a stochastic root-finding algorithm that, combined with our adaptive methods, can be used to compute other risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), with the latter being achieved with $\mathcal{O}\left(\varepsilon^{-2}\right)$ complexity.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Giles & Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali, 2018. "Multilevel nested simulation for efficient risk estimation," Papers 1802.05016, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.05016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Crépey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi, 2024. "A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04037328, HAL.
    2. Yasa Syed & Guanyang Wang, 2023. "Optimal randomized multilevel Monte Carlo for repeatedly nested expectations," Papers 2301.04095, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Devang Sinha & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Multilevel Monte Carlo and its Applications in Financial Engineering," Papers 2209.14549, arXiv.org.
    4. Stéphane Crépey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi & Gilles Pagès, 2023. "Asymptotic Error Analysis of Multilevel Stochastic Approximations for the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04304985, HAL.
    5. Bourgey Florian & De Marco Stefano & Gobet Emmanuel & Zhou Alexandre, 2020. "Multilevel Monte Carlo methods and lower–upper bounds in initial margin computations," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 131-161, June.
    6. Alfonsi, Aurélien & Cherchali, Adel & Infante Acevedo, Jose Arturo, 2021. "Multilevel Monte-Carlo for computing the SCR with the standard formula and other stress tests," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 234-260.
    7. F Bourgey & S de Marco & Emmanuel Gobet & Alexandre Zhou, 2020. "Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods and lower-upper bounds in Initial Margin computations," Working Papers hal-02430430, HAL.
    8. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Adel Cherchali & Jose Arturo Infante Acevedo, 2020. "Multilevel Monte-Carlo for computing the SCR with the standard formula and other stress tests," Papers 2010.12651, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    9. F Bourgey & S de Marco & Emmanuel Gobet & Alexandre Zhou, 2020. "Multilevel Monte-Carlo methods and lower-upper bounds in Initial Margin computations," Post-Print hal-02430430, HAL.
    10. Goda, Takashi & Kitade, Wataru, 2023. "Constructing unbiased gradient estimators with finite variance for conditional stochastic optimization," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 743-763.
    11. Runhuan Feng & Peng Li, 2021. "Sample Recycling Method -- A New Approach to Efficient Nested Monte Carlo Simulations," Papers 2106.06028, arXiv.org.
    12. St'ephane Cr'epey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi, 2023. "A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation," Papers 2304.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    13. Michael B. Giles & Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali, 2019. "Sub-sampling and other considerations for efficient risk estimation in large portfolios," Papers 1912.05484, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    14. Devang Sinha & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2024. "Multilevel Monte Carlo in Sample Average Approximation: Convergence, Complexity and Application," Papers 2407.18504, arXiv.org.
    15. Stéphane Crépey & Noufel Frikha & Azar Louzi, 2024. "A Multilevel Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation," Working Papers hal-04037328, HAL.

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