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Comment Israël a évité l’hyperinflation ? Le succès du plan de stabilisation (1985) à la lumière de la théorie post-keynésienne

Author

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  • Jonathan Marie

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sébastien Charles

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

Abstract

Adoptant un cadre post-keynésien, l'article analyse le processus inflationniste à l'œuvre de 1948 jusqu'aux années 1980 pour, d'une part, comprendre les origines de la quasi hyperinflation du 1er semestre 1985 et, d'autre part, saisir la réussite du plan de stabilisation intervenu lors de l'été de cette même année. En 1985 le shekel semble devoir être complètement rejeté par ses utilisateurs au profit du dollar, ce qui, dans le contexte fortement inflationniste d'alors, aurait dû engendrer une hyperinflation. Ce résultat est provoqué par la conjonction de plusieurs facteurs : la virulence historique du conflit de répartition, la présence de mécanismes d'indexation et la fragilité des comptes extérieurs marqués par un déficit courant structurel. Le plan de stabilisation, soutenu par l'aide financière importante des États-Unis, permet d'atténuer immédiatement la contrainte de financement externe et parvient à affaiblir durablement la virulence du conflit de répartition, écartant ainsi les risques hyperinflationnistes. L'analyse de cette trajectoire historique confirme la cohérence théorique de l'analyse post-keynésienne de l'hyperinflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Marie & Sébastien Charles, 2018. "Comment Israël a évité l’hyperinflation ? Le succès du plan de stabilisation (1985) à la lumière de la théorie post-keynésienne," CEPN Working Papers hal-01937054, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01937054
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01937054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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