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Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne

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  • Marie, Jonathan

Abstract

L’article poursuit un double objectif. Le premier vise à proposer une interprétation de l’hyperinflation compatible avec la théorie post-keynésienne. L’analyse des phénomènes hyperinflationnistes par les auteurs post-keynésiens mais aussi par les auteurs structuralistes permet de nourrir notre réflexion. Nous mettons l’accent sur l’importance de la présence d’une devise dans les comportements domestiques au cours des hautes inflations. D’ailleurs, selon nous, l’hyperinflation est indissociable du rejet complet de la monnaie domestique au profit d’une devise. Ce rejet, soudain dans son expression finale, se construit progressivement. Il est suscité par un violent conflit de répartition qui génère une forte inflation, par des phénomènes d’indexation, par un endettement externe libellé en devises et par des comportements auto-réalisateurs sur le change.Le second objectif réside dans la confrontation de cette proposition théorique aux faits économiques observés en Argentine sur une période qui débute lors des années 1970 et mène à l’hyperinflation de 1989. L’analyse d’économie politique historique permet de repérer la séquence suivante : le conflit de répartition est particulièrement virulent et régulièrement reconfiguré dès les années 1970. Cela provoque l’émergence d’arrangements institutionnels développés par les agents (l’indexation), pendant que le dollar prend de plus en plus d’importance dans l’économie. Ce dernier point est encouragé par l’adoption d’une politique de change originale dans un contexte de complète libéralisation financière à la fin des années 1970. L’impossibilité dans les années 1980 de stabiliser le taux de change dans un contexte de fort endettement externe rend possible en 1989 la survenue de l’hyperinflation, provoquée in fine par une intense spéculation sur le change et un run sur les réserves.

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  • Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
    • Handle: RePEc:rvr:journl:2014:10794
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    1. Eduardo F Bastian & Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2024. "Inflation regimes and hyperinflation: a Post-Keynesian/structuralist typology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 48(4), pages 681-708.
    2. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change," CEPN Working Papers 2016-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    3. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Eduardo Figueiredo Bastian & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Inflation Regimes and Hyperinflation. A Post-Keynesian/Structuralist typology," CEPN Working Papers hal-03363240, HAL.
    5. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 528-558, May.
    6. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hyperinflation; théorie post-keynésienne; hyperinflation; post-keynesian theory; Argentina; hierinflación; teoría post-keynesiansa; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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