IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hai/wpaper/200217.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Byron Gangnes

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Craig Parsons

    (Department of Economics, Yokohama National University)

Abstract

Empirical evaluations of trade agreements often rely on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods to detect subsequent changes in trade flows. We conduct a more satisfactory test by evaluating an agreement in the context of a structural econometric model. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where trade agreements may cause structural changes in cointegrating vectors. This approach is applied to study the effect of several U.S.-Japan market-opening trade agreements; in three of seven industries we find evidence of structural change that may be related to trade agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2002. "Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements," Working Papers 200217, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_02-17.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2002
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 222-259, April.
    3. Greaney, Theresa M., 1996. "Import now! An analysis of market-share voluntary import expansions (VIEs)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 149-163, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.
    2. Sébastien Morin, 2004. "Ruptures structurelles sur les marchés action et obligataire américains : preuve empirique à partir de la méthode de Saikkönen," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 166(5), pages 87-98.
    3. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    5. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
    6. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2021. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 71-88, February.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2013. "The J-Curve and Japan--China commodity trade," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 13-28, February.
    8. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.
    9. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-613, November.
    10. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Trade Re(Im)Balanced: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements," IHEID Working Papers 06-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Sokolova, Maria V., 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," Conference papers 332790, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Amna Nazeer & Wu Jun & Khuram Shafi & Liu Yan Yan, 2015. "Fluctuation of Yuan/Dollar: Time Series Co Integration Analysis," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 317-326, January.
    13. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    14. Mohamed Abbas Ibrahim, 2016. "Trade deficit in Egypt: Is it can be controlled?," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    15. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Is There J-Curve Effect In The Commodity Trade Of Singapore With Malaysia? An Empirical Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 567-591, June.
    17. Groenewold, Nicolaas & He, Lei, 2007. "The US-China trade imbalance: Will revaluing the RMB help (much)?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 127-132, July.
    18. Jim Malley & Thomas Moutos, 2002. "Vertical product differentiation and the import demand function: theory and evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 257-281, May.
    19. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2019. "An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 2854-2899, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Web Technician (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuhius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.