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Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach

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  • Sajad Ahmad Bhat
  • Javed Ahmad Bhat

Abstract

Applying an asymmetric model, the study reported no evidence of J-curve phenomenon in case of India. In the short-run currency appreciation deteriorates the trade balance and currency depreciation improves it. In the long-run, again the similar response is observed, however, only the impact of currency depreciation is statistically significant. Increase in domestic demand deteriorates the trade balance by a greater magnitude than improvement is observed due to the decline in domestic demand conditions. Finally, foreign demand hike improves the trade balance relatively by a higher magnitude; however, the impact of a foreign demand decline is statistically insignificant. JEL Codes: F4, F41, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2021. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 71-88, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:56:y:2021:i:1:p:71-88
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732520961328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Waseem Ahmad Parray & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Effat Yasmin & Sajad Ahmad Bhat, 2023. "Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve Effect: Asymmetric Evidence from a Panel of Five Emerging Market Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(4), pages 524-543, November.
    2. Lingaraj Mallick & Smruti Ranjan Behera & Mita Bhattacharya, 2024. "Impact of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance of India: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Error Correction Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(2), pages 279-308, May.
    3. Fatma Ünlü, 2024. "Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 63-75, June.
    4. Parray Waseem A. & Wani Suadat H. & Yasmin Effat, 2022. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in India. Evidence from a Post-Liberalisation Period," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 16-37, December.
    5. Homamul Islam, 2021. "Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 74-81, 06-2021.
    6. Moloko Kholofelo Mokgokong & Ireen Choga, 2024. "Analysing Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Trade Balance in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 64-76, October.
    7. Keilla Dayane Silva-Oliveira & Edson Keyso Miranda Kubo & Michael J. Morley & Rodrigo Médici Cândido, 2021. "Emerging Economy Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Bibliometric and Thematic Content Analysis," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 643-679, October.
    8. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2023. "The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 199-219, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; exchange rate; domestic demand; foreign demand; asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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