IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/86640.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate and External Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence of J-Curve Effect in Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Kwame Akosah, Nana
  • Omane-Adjepong, Maurice

Abstract

Ghana’s external trade has remained in perpetual deficits over the three decades alongside depreciating domestic currency. This paper therefore examines the effect of real exchange rate (RER) movements on Ghana’s external trade performance, using a battery of times series models. The study particularly assesses the validity of Marshall-Lerner Condition, the J-Curve and Kulkarni Hypotheses in the case of Ghana. The empirical analysis reveals inelastic responses of both export and import demand to changes in RER. We found a steady long run link between RER movements and Ghana’s trade balance. However, the impact of RER on Ghana’s trade balance was found to be asymmetric. Periods of minimal real depreciation (a “tranquil” regime) lend support to Marshall-Lerner Condition (MLC), the J-Curve theory and Kulkarni Hypothesis in the context of Ghana. In contrast, we found less visible evidence of J-curve for periods of excessive real depreciation (an “intemperate” regime). It is therefore critical to sustain macroeconomic stability in order to engender low and stable inflation and stable foreign exchange rates. This however requires the adoption of appropriate and coordinated monetary and fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwame Akosah, Nana & Omane-Adjepong, Maurice, 2017. "Exchange Rate and External Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence of J-Curve Effect in Ghana," MPRA Paper 86640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86640/1/MPRA_paper_86640.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    4. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:26:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 369-380.
    7. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami & Bidyut Kumar Talukdar, 2005. "The Bilateral J‐Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 110-120, June.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Sadek Hosny, 2012. "Egypt-EU commodity trade and the J-Curve," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 192-209.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    11. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    12. Philip O. Alege & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2015. "Trade-Exchange Rate Nexus in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(3), pages 151-167, August.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2012. "Is there J-Curve effect in Africa?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 73-81, June.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Sadek Hosny, 2013. "Egypt-US commodity trade and the J-curve," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 115-127.
    15. Elif Akbostanci, 2004. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 57-73, September.
    16. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Onatunji Olufemi, 2019. "Do real exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on trade balance in Nigeria? Evidence from Non-linear ARDL Model," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 11(1), pages 14-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    2. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    3. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    4. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Salman Huseynov & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 83-98, March.
    6. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    8. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "The U.S. Trade Balance with Partners from Developing World: An Asymmetry Analysis of the J-Curve Effect," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 29-44, June.
    10. Gulzar Ali & Kaleem Ullah & Said Zamin Shah & Shaista Khan, 2022. "Testing Of Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence From Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 46-52, March.
    11. Kurtović Safet, 2017. "The Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 141-158, June.
    12. Kurtovic Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 181-204, December.
    13. Şerife ÖZŞAHİN, 2017. "An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 221-236, Summer.
    14. Ayşen SİVRİKAYA & Serdar ONGAN, 2019. "BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
    15. Kurtović Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 27-36, September.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Export diversification and the S-curve effect in a resource-rich state: evidence from Azerbaijan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 135-154, May.
    18. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    19. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    20. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-Curve Hypothesis; Kulkarni Hypothesis; Marshall-Lerner Condition; Trade Balance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.