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Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. electricity

Author

Listed:
  • Rangrang Zheng

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Greg Schivley

    (Princeton University)

  • Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Matthias Fripp

    (Environmental Defense Fund)

  • Michael J. Roberts

    (University of Hawaii)

Abstract

Solar and wind power are cost-competitive with fossil fuels, yet their intermittent nature presents challenges. Significant temporal and geographic differences in land, wind, and solar resources suggest that long-distance transmission could be particularly beneficial. Using a detailed, open source model, we analyze optimal transmission expansion jointly with storage, generation, and hourly operations across the three primary interconnects in the United States. Transmission expansion offers far more benefits in a high-renewable system than in a system with mostly conventional generation. Yet while an optimal nationwide plan would have more than triple current interregional transmission, transmission decreases the cost of a 100% clean system by only 4% compared to a plan that relies solely on current transmission. Expanding capacity only within existing interconnects can achieve most of these savings. Adjustments to energy storage and generation mix can leverage the current interregional transmission infrastructure to build a clean power system at a reasonable cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangrang Zheng & Greg Schivley & Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez & Matthias Fripp & Michael J. Roberts, 2024. "Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. electricity," Working Papers 2024-2, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    • Handle: RePEc:hae:wpaper:2024-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas W. Davis & Catherine Hausman & Nancy L. Rose, 2023. "Transmission Impossible? Prospects for Decarbonizing the US Grid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
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    3. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
    4. Mai, Trieu & Bistline, John & Sun, Yinong & Cole, Wesley & Marcy, Cara & Namovicz, Chris & Young, David, 2018. "The role of input assumptions and model structures in projections of variable renewable energy: A multi-model perspective of the U.S. electricity system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 313-324.
    5. Jayadev, Gopika & Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Kutanoglu, Erhan, 2020. "U.S. electricity infrastructure of the future: Generation and transmission pathways through 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    6. Sánchez-Pérez, P.A. & Staadecker, Martin & Szinai, Julia & Kurtz, Sarah & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2022. "Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decarbonization; renewable energy; intermittency; transmission; trade; optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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