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Counterfactual Dissimilarity: Can Changes in Demographics and Income Explain Increased Racial Integration in U.S. Cities?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Carrillo

    (George Washington University)

  • Jonathan Rothbaum

    (U.S. Census Bureau)

Abstract

Urban areas in the U.S. have experienced important changes in racial/ethnic distributions over the last two decades. In the average urban area today black-white racial integration has increased by 10.6 percent between 1990 and 2010. Changes in racial and ethnic distributions and gentrification are often associated with changes in residents' demographic characteristics, such as income, education and age. This paper applies a non-parametric spatial decomposition technique using complete (restricted-use) microdata files from the 1990 Decennial Long Form Census and 2008-2012 American Community Surveys to assess what portion of the changes in racial distributions can be attributed to changes in individual characteristics. We find that that, on average, a little over a third of the observed increase in integration can be accounted for by changes in observed individual characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Carrillo & Jonathan Rothbaum, 2021. "Counterfactual Dissimilarity: Can Changes in Demographics and Income Explain Increased Racial Integration in U.S. Cities?," Working Papers 2021-10, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2021-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Feng & Huali Hou, 2023. "Review of Research on Urban Social Space and Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Counterfactual Distribution; Decomposition; Spatial Econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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