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A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Costas Azariadis

    (Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles)

  • John Stachurski

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a method to predict evolution of the crosscountry income distribution from a nonconvex growth model with unbounded productivity shocks, fitted to panel data by threshold autoregresion. We estimate the stochastic kernel of the process, and define inducively all future distributions as a norm-convergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that such bimodality eventually peaks and declines. In the long run we predict convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Azariadis & John Stachurski, 2003. "A Forward Projection of the Cross-Country Income Distribution," KIER Working Papers 570, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:570
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, Elsevier.
    2. Seonyoung Park & Donggyun Shin, 2023. "Recent changes in the nature of the distribution dynamics of the US county incomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1048-1067, November.
    3. Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2015. "Too Poor to Grow," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 13, pages 309-350, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
    5. Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & R. Robert Russell, 2008. "Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using modality tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 607-638.
    6. Sungil Kwak & Stephen C. Smith, 2013. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 955-975, July.
    7. Blackburn, Keith & Forgues-Puccio, Gonzalo F., 2007. "Distribution and development in a model of misgovernance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1534-1563, August.
    8. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2018. "A Simple Model of Growth Slowdown," Studies in Economics 1813, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign Aid – A Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2011, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    10. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles S. Gascon, 2008. "Convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," Working Papers 2008-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Riccardo DiCecio & Charles Gascon, 2010. "Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2), pages 365-377, October.
    12. Park, Seonyoung & Shin, Donggyun, 2020. "Recent Changes in the Nature of Distribution Dynamics of US County Incomes," Working Paper Series 8075, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Charles D. Brummitt & Andres Gomez-Lievano & Ricardo Hausmann & Matthew H. Bonds, 2018. "Machine-learned patterns suggest that diversification drives economic development," Papers 1812.03534, arXiv.org.
    14. Fotopoulos, Georgios, 2006. "Nonparametric analysis of regional income dynamics: The case of Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 450-457, June.

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