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Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • David H. Bernstein

    (University of Miami)

  • Andrew B. Martinez

    (Office of Macroeconomic Analysis, U.S. Department of the Treasury)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, and with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help interpret the pandemic's effects. After replicating and extending Emerson's (2011) model of the labor market, we formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980-2019 and use it to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic's labor-market consequences. Gender-specific differences were particularly large at the pandemic's outset; lower labor force participation persists.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Working Papers 2021-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2021-006
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity and implications for price inflation in 2022," Economics Series Working Papers 983, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Jamie Emerson, 2023. "Education, employment, and labor force participation in the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1377-1388.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2023. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor force participation; unemployment; general-to-specific modeling; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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