IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Bersch
  • Tara M. Sinclair

Abstract

This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24779
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2010/197, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Leandro Medina & Mr. Nicolas E Magud, 2011. "The Chilean Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/002, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2005. "GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2005/093, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Julia Bersch & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. Yasuhisa Ojima, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster," IMF Working Papers 2012/192, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bataa, Erdenebat, 2012. "Macroeconomic risks of Mongolia and ways to mitigate them," MPRA Paper 72386, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1864-1874.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Pu Chen & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 853-878, September.
    6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Gabriel RODRIGUEZ, 2010. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, And The Nairu For Peru, 1979-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    8. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2015. "Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1266-1290, November.
    9. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    10. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
    11. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    12. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.
    14. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU for Peru," Working Papers 2009-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    16. Breuer Sebastian & Elstner Steffen, 2020. "Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(5), pages 565-605, October.
    17. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Stylized Facts of the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    18. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    20. Castillo, Paul & Rojas, Youel, 2014. "Términos de intercambio y productividad total de factores: Evidencia empírica de los mercados emergentes de América latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 27-46.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.