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Identifying The Shocks Driving Inflation In China

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  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

The time profile of inflation in China resembles the one experienced in major industrial countries. Given the uncertainty surrounding the sources of economic shocks, the present paper compares results from three sets of alternative identification conditions. Our principal finding is that inflation in China has been primarily driven by monetary factors. Although aggregate supply factors might have pushed inflation to cross the threshold leading to deflation, monetary policy is primarily responsible for Chinese inflationary outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2010. "Identifying The Shocks Driving Inflation In China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 204-223, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:204-223
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00498.x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    7. Kwo Ping Tam, 2016. "A New Comparative Study On The Free-Floating And Currency Board Regimes In Hong Kong," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 218-238, April.
    8. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    9. Chiang, Shu-Hen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Liao, Ying, 2021. "Exploring the sources of inflation dynamics: New evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 313-332.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2016. "Deflation in Asia: Should the Dangers Be Dismissed?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 490, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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