IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/202005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output Gaps and Inflation in Mainland China

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Gerlach

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Wensheng Peng

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2005. "Output Gaps and Inflation in Mainland China," Working Papers 202005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/218/ub_full_0_2_120_wp200520_text.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
    2. Borensztein, Eduardo & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1996. "Accounting for China's Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 224-228, May.
    3. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
    4. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    6. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    7. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    8. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    9. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
    10. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine," Development and Comp Systems 0310001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hiroyuki IMAI, 1997. "Output-Inflation Tradeoff In China," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 35(2), pages 111-141, June.
    12. Mr. S. E Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 1997/135, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    2. Wojciech Maliszewski & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2015. "China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?," IMF Working Papers 2015/113, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
    4. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    5. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
    6. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    7. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence in Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03774248, HAL.
    8. Jeffrey Zax, 2014. "Housing allocations, imputed rents and inequality in urban China," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1682, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2009. "Regional Inflation in China," MPRA Paper 24722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    11. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
    12. Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
    13. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:191-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jana Budova & Veronika Sulikova & Marianna Sinicakova, 2023. "When Inflation Again Matters: Do Domestic and Global Output Gaps Determine Inflation in the EU?," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(63), pages 575-575, April.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Antonin Rusek, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in New EU Member States: The Czech Case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 191-204, May.
    20. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    21. Osman, Mohammad & Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?," MPRA Paper 11612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    23. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
    24. Matthieu Bussière & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?," Occasional Paper Series 80, European Central Bank.
    25. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    3. Sylvie DEMURGER, 1999. "Éléments de comptabilité de la croissance chinoise," Working Papers 199913, CERDI.
    4. Nazrul Islam & Erbiao Dai & Hiroshi Sakamoto, 2006. "Role of TFP in China's Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 127-159, June.
    5. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Minzhe Du & Bing Wang & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Sources of China’s Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on the BML Index with Green Growth Accounting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Massimo Caruso, 2002. "Procyclical Productivity and Output Growth in China: An Econometric Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 251-274, July.
    8. Almas Heshmati & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2010. "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Case of Chinese Provinces," TEMEP Discussion Papers 201054, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), revised Feb 2010.
    9. Shiu, Alice & Heshmati, Almas, 2006. "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Analysis," Ratio Working Papers 98, The Ratio Institute.
    10. Feng, Chao & Wang, Miao & Liu, Guan-Chun & Huang, Jian-Bai, 2017. "Sources of economic growth in China from 2000–2013 and its further sustainable growth path: A three-hierarchy meta-frontier data envelopment analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 334-348.
    11. Ligang Song & Yu Sheng, 2008. "The Impact of Reform on Economic Growth in China: A Principal Component Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-12, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Rui Hao, 2011. "Sources of income differences across Chinese provinces during the reform period: a development accounting exercise," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557001, HAL.
    13. Selin Ozyurt, 2009. "Total Factor Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: 1952-2005," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 1-17.
    14. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
    15. Mario Biggeri, 2003. "Key Factors of Recent Chinese Provincial Economic Growth," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 159-183.
    16. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    17. CHI, Wei, 2008. "The role of human capital in China's economic development: Review and new evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 421-436, September.
    18. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    19. Ryota Kojima & Shinya Nakamura & Shinsuke Ohyama, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics in China," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    20. M. Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2012. "Equipment investment, output and productivity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 181-207, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; Phillips curve; China; omitted variab les;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.