IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/grt/wpegrt/2014-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What is so specific with Middle-East and North-African pattern of growth and structural change? A quantitative comparative analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dalila NICET-CHENAF
  • Eric ROUGIER

Abstract

This paper quantitatively compares Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ growth patterns with those of a sample of middle-income countries. Three complementary sets of growth determinants are tested: accumulation, institutions and structural change. After having estimated the model on a sample of middle income countries, our comparative analysis shows that MENA economies sharply contrast with other middle income emerging economies with respect to two main dimensions: (1) the sectoral structure of production and (2) the institutional environment. The assumption of complementary effect of the accumulation, institutional and structural growth determinants is also tested. We show that the MENA pattern of growth exhibits structural weaknesses, like the combination of a low pace of structural change and high corruption levels, which may have hindered the expansion of highly productive job, and possibly bred massive discontent in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2014. "What is so specific with Middle-East and North-African pattern of growth and structural change? A quantitative comparative analysis," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2014-23, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    • Handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2014-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cahiersdugretha.u-bordeaux.fr/2014/2014-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. World Bank, 2009. "From Privilege to Competition : Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13524.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    4. Aidt, Toke & Dutta, Jayasri & Sena, Vania, 2008. "Governance regimes, corruption and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 195-220, June.
    5. Jonathan Temple & Ludger Wößmann, 2006. "Dualism and cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 187-228, September.
    6. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    7. repec:wbk:wbpubs:13523 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    9. Debraj Ray, 2010. "Uneven Growth: A Framework for Research in Development Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 45-60, Summer.
    10. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    12. Marcus Noland & Howard Pack, 2007. "Arab Economies in a Changing World, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3931, April.
    13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik & Jensen, Henning Tarp, 2007. "Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-309.
    14. Ndiamé Diop & Daniela Marotta & Jaime de Melo, 2012. "Natural Resource Abundance, Growth, and Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa : The Effects of Natural Resources and the Role of Policies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11956.
    15. World Bank & P.R.C. Development Research Center of the State Council, 2012. "China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society [pre-publication version]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6057.
    16. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    17. Toke S. Aidt, 2003. "Economic analysis of corruption: a survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 632-652, November.
    18. Justin Yifu Lin, 2012. "New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2232.
    19. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 1," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 306, Asian Development Bank.
    20. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    21. Jesus Felipe & Arnelyn Abdon & Utsav Kumar, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_715, Levy Economics Institute.
    22. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    23. Tarik M. Yousef, 2004. "Development, Growth and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 91-115, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    2. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    2. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    3. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    4. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, 2020. "Dynamics of Structural Change in a Globalized World: What Is the Role Played by Institutions in the Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(4), pages 998-1037, September.
    5. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2009. "Human capital and structural change: how do they interact with each others in growth," Post-Print hal-00798441, HAL.
    6. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    7. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA-GRES) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA-GRES), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2008-17, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    8. Pauline Lectard & Eric Rougier, 2018. "Can developing countries gain from defying comparative advantage? Distance to comparative advantage, export diversification and sophistication, and the dynamics of specialization [Les pays en dével," Post-Print hal-04587399, HAL.
    9. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    10. Veerayooth Kanchoochat & Patarapong Intarakumnerd, 2014. "Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-income Trap through the East and Southeast Asian Experience," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1404, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    11. Keun Lee & Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake, 2018. "Adding-Up Problem and Wage–Productivity Gap in Exports of Developing Countries: A Source of the Middle-Income Trap," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(5), pages 769-788, December.
    12. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    13. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2018. "Structural modernisation and development traps. An empirical approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 59-73.
    14. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    15. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    17. World Bank, 2014. "Turkey’s Transitions : Integration, Inclusion, Institutions," World Bank Publications - Reports 20691, The World Bank Group.
    18. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2021. "Brazil's quasi-stagnation and East-Asia growth: A new-developmental explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 500-508.
    20. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 590-605, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Structural change; Institutions; Corruption; Middle-East and North-Africa; Middle-income economies; Quantitative comparative analysis; Panel data; GMM estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2014-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ernest Miguelez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifredfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.