IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cpn/umkeip/v17y2018i4p367-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Janusz Heller

    (University of Warmia and Mazuria in Olsztyn)

  • Rafal Warzala

    (University of Warmia and Mazuria in Olsztyn)

Abstract

Motivation: There are many victims of middle economic income trap in the world. This term commonly refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth, which enabled them to reach the status of a middle-income country, but finally have not been able to catch up the developed countries and achieve high-income status. Following this raises the question about Poland’s economy position in the context of middle income trap. Aim: The aim of article is to present the position of polish economy in the context of ‘middle income trap theory’. Results: Poland is a middle-income country, and some classifications say it is even a high-income country. The analysis of statistical indicators shows that in Poland there is a problem with the quality of labor, education and competencies, often because of the outflow of talented human capital. Moreover, as is known from the data prepared for the Strategy Europe 2020, Poland has the highest percentage of fixed term contracts in Europe and high poverty at work. Also the low share of the R&D expenditure in the GDP goes together with low sub-indexes of the Global Competitiveness Index and the Index of Economic Freedom. As to the export structure, there was considerable increase in middle and upper technology goods share over the last 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkeip:v:17:y:2018:i:4:p:367-381
    DOI: 10.12775/EiP.2018.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2018.027
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.12775/EiP.2018.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    3. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    4. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2017. "Caught In The Middle? The Economics Of Middle-Income Traps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 771-791, July.
    6. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.
    7. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    8. Wade, Robert Hunter, 2016. "Industrial policy in response to the middle-income trap and the Third Wave of the digital revolution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69649, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Fang Cai, 2012. "Is There a “Middle‐income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 49-61, January.
    10. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    11. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 1," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 306, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Robert H Wade, 2016. "Industrial Policy in Response to the Middle-income Trap and the Third Wave of the Digital Revolution," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 7(4), pages 469-480, November.
    13. Alfonso Dingemans, 2016. "Trying to stay ahead of the curve in Chile's economic development: exploring a way out of the middle-income trap through pragmatic export development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 34(5), pages 643-669, September.
    14. Jesus Felipe & Arnelyn Abdon & Utsav Kumar, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_715, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969.
    16. Pierre-Richard AGENOR, 2016. "Caught in the Middle? The Economics of Middle-Income Traps," Working Papers P142, FERDI.
    17. Homi Kharas & Harinder Kohli, 2011. "What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 281-289, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    3. Cyn‐Young Park & Rogelio V. Mercado, 2020. "Economic Convergence, Capital Accumulation, and Income Traps: Empirical Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(1), pages 26-58, March.
    4. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    5. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    6. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    7. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem & Sancar, Canan, 2021. "The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-375.
    9. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    10. Allaoui, Elhassen & Tidjani, Chemseddine & Lacheheb, Miloud, 2015. "“Middle Income Trap”; the position of Algerian economy: a comparative analysis overview," MPRA Paper 91745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2019.
    11. David Bulman & Maya Eden & Ha Nguyen, 2017. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 5-28, January.
    12. Richard Harrison & William Scheela & P. C. Lai & Sivapalan Vivekarajah, 2018. "Beyond institutional voids and the middle-income trap: The emerging business angel market in Malaysia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 965-991, December.
    13. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.
    14. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
    15. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Charles Gore, 2017. "Late industrialisation, urbanisation and the middle-income trap: an analytical approach and the case of Vietnam," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 35-57.
    17. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants of the Middle-Income Trap," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 10/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    18. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    19. World Bank, 2014. "Turkey’s Transitions : Integration, Inclusion, Institutions," World Bank Publications - Reports 20691, The World Bank Group.
    20. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; middle income trap;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpn:umkeip:v:17:y:2018:i:4:p:367-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Miroslawa Buczynska (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wydawnictwoumk.pl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.