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An Early Warning Model for EU banks with Detection of the Adverse Selection Effect

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  • Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES )
  • Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole)
  • Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole)

Abstract

We estimate an early warning model of banks’ failure using a panel of 82 EU banks observed between 1991 and 2005. We make two contributions to the literature. Firstly, we construct a distance-to-default indicator and test its predictive power. The tests implemented here are very similar to those realized by Gropp, Vesala and Vulpes (2005), but our time dimension is four years longer and we use a more restrictive definition of banks’ “failure”. This first part of the paper establishes the accuracy of our data and confirms the robustness of distance-to-default as an early indicator of EU banks’ fragility. Our second advance consists in introducing a variable detecting the adverse selection problem that can be caused by rapid growth strategies. A measure of past average growth of assets is shown to be a very significant and powerful predictor of future banks’ difficulties. We discuss the origins and implications of such an effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES ) & Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole) & Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole), 2007. "An Early Warning Model for EU banks with Detection of the Adverse Selection Effect," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2007-08, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    • Handle: RePEc:grs:wpegrs:2007-08
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    File URL: http://cahiersdugres.u-bordeaux4.fr/2007/2007-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    3. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    5. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
    6. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
    7. Isabelle Distinguin & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2006. "Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 151-176, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. José Eduardo Gómez González & Ines Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
    2. Sargu Alina Camelia & Roman Angela, 2013. "A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF THE BANKSâ€(tm) FINANCIAL SOUNDNESS: THE CASE OF THE CEE-3 COUNTRIES," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 357-367, July.
    3. Iustina Alina BOITAN & Nicolae DARDAC, 2010. "Banking Crises’ Triggering Factors – Lessons from Past Experience," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    failures; early warning systems; CAMEL ratings; distance to default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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