IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00794214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress

Author

Listed:
  • Isabelle Distinguin

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Philippe Rous

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Amine Tarazi

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

Abstract

We assess the extent to which stock market information can be used to estimate leading indicators of bank financial distress. We specify a logit early warning model, designed for European banks, which tests if market based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data. We also study the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading in the light of the safety net and asymmetric information hypotheses. Some of our results support the use of market-related indicators. Other results show that the accuracy of the predictive power depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Distinguin & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2006. "Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress," Post-Print hal-00794214, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00794214
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-0016-6
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-00794214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-00794214/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10693-0016-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    4. Crouzille, Celine & Lepetit, Laetitia & Tarazi, Amine, 2004. "Bank stock volatility, news and asymmetric information in banking: an empirical investigation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 443-461.
    5. Leland, Hayne E & Pyle, David H, 1977. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 371-387, May.
    6. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
    7. Billett, Matthew T. & Garfinkel, Jon A. & O'Neal, Edward S., 1998. "The cost of market versus regulatory discipline in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 333-358, June.
    8. Daniel Goyeau & Alain Sauviat & Amine Tarazi, 2001. "Marché financier et évaluation du risque bancaire. Les agences de notation contribuent-elles à améliorer la discipline de marché ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(2), pages 265-283.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Isabelle Distinguin & Iftekhar Hasan & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 471-500, August.
    3. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2011. "The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 876-885, April.
    4. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    6. Allen Berger & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2015. "Do Depositors Discipline Banks and Did Government Actions During the Recent Crisis Reduce this Discipline? An International Perspective," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 103-126, October.
    7. Mbarek Lassaâd & Mezzez Hmaied Dorra, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2004. "Can the unsophisticated market provide discipline?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3364, The World Bank.
    9. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    10. Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working Papers hal-00547744, HAL.
    11. Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Other publications TiSEM a6e8a0c8-00de-45b7-bb02-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    13. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Andrea Maechler & Stephanie Stolz, 2011. "Who Disciplines Bank Managers?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 197-243.
    14. Jones, Jeffrey S. & Lee, Wayne Y. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2012. "Opaque banks, price discovery, and financial instability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 383-408.
    15. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
    16. Rosalind L. Bennett & Mark D. Vaughan & Timothy J. Yeager, 2005. "Should the FDIC worry about the FHLB? The impact of Federal Home Loan Bank advances on the Bank Insurance Fund," Working Paper 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Heller, Yuval & Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Banks’ risk taking and creditors’ bargaining power," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Sunil Mohanty & Doocheol Moon, 2007. "Disentangling the signalling and liquidity effects of stock splits," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 979-987.
    19. Jens Forssbæck, 2011. "Divergence of risk indicators and the conditions for market discipline in banking," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2011/4, May.
    20. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    words: Bank; Market Discipline; Bank Risk; Market Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00794214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.