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Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

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  • Jérôme Coffinet
  • Adrian Pop
  • Muriel Tiesset

Abstract

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, their combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2013. "Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 229-257, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:229-257
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-012-0150-2
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    5. Ju, Yonghan & Jeon, Song Yi & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Behavioral technology credit scoring model with time-dependent covariates for stress test," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 910-919.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank market discipline; Financial system oversight; Financial distress; Options; Implied volatility; Survival analysis; G21; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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