IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/got/gotcrc/068.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China

Author

Listed:
  • Rainer Holst

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Xiaohua Yu

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Carola Grün

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South China could entail an increase of grain output by 3.79 million tons or an economic benefit of around USD 798 million due to the increasing mean output. However the impact of global warming in north China is negative, small and insignificant. In addition, Hausman tests reveal no endogeneity of climate variables in Chinese grain production.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainer Holst & Xiaohua Yu & Carola Grün, 2011. "Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 68, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_68.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José Gustavo Féres & Eustáquio José Reis & Juliana Speranza, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181438190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saumya Verma & Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen, 2020. "Does climate change make foodgrain yields more unpredictable? Evidence from India," Working papers 305, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anwar Hussain & Rabia Bangash, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 163-187.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md. Mahmudul Alam & Basri Abdul Talib & Chamhuri Siwar & Abu N. M. Wahid, 2016. "Climate change and food security of the Malaysian east coast poor: a path modeling approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(3), pages 458-474, August.
    2. Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Schmitz, Christoph & Müller, Christoph & Fader, Marianela & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander, 2012. "Measuring agricultural land-use intensity – A global analysis using a model-assisted approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 109-118.
    3. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    4. Amaza, P., 2018. "Impact on household food security of promoting sustainable agriculture among farming households in Borno State, Nigeria," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277204, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Alejandro Rojas & Will Valley & Brent Mansfield & Elena Orrego & Gwen E. Chapman & Yael Harlap, 2011. "Toward Food System Sustainability through School Food System Change: Think&EatGreen@School and the Making of a Community-University Research Alliance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(5), pages 1-26, May.
    6. Pires, Marcel Viana & Cunha, Dênis Antônio da, 2014. "Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies in Brazil: the economic effects of genetic breeding," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(4), January.
    7. Fan, Linlin & Nogueira, Lia & Baylis, Katherine R., 2013. "Agricultural Market Reforms and Nutritional Transition in Rural China," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150203, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Sitko, Nicholas J. & Jayne, T.S. & Burke, William J. & Muyanga, Milu, 2017. "Food System Transformation and Market Evolutions: An Analysis of the Rise of Large-Scale Grain Trading in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Security International Development Working Papers 263195, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050," World Bank Publications - Reports 12475, The World Bank Group.
    10. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Simla Tokgoz & Wei Zhang & Siwa Msangi & Prapti Bhandary, 2012. "Biofuels and the Future of Food: Competition and Complementarities," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Dorward, Andrew & Chirwa, Ephraim & Kelly, Valerie A. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Slater, Rachel & Boughton, Duncan, 2008. "Evaluation Of The 2006/7 Agricultural Input Subsidy Programme, Malawi. Final Report," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 97143, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    13. Borychowski Michał, 2017. "Determinants For Liquid Biofuels Production In Poland After 2006 – Model Approach," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 44(2), June.
    14. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia's Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 351-384, March.
    15. Simon, Michael & Tsegai, Daniel W. & Flessa, Steffen, 2012. "Intersectoral Health Action in Tanzania – Determinants and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers 142395, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    16. Craig Sugden, 2009. "Responding to High Commodity Prices," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 23(1), pages 79-105, May.
    17. Holst, Rainer & Yu, Xiaohua, 2010. "Climate Change And Production Risk In Chinese Aquaculture," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91275, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Götz Uckert & Frieder Graef & Anja Faße & Ludger Herrmann & Harry Hoffmann & Frederick C. Kahimba & Luitfred Kissoly & Hannes J. König & Christine Lambert & Henry Mahoo & Bashir Makoko & Leon Mrosso &, 2018. "ScalA-FS: expert-based ex-ante assessments of local requirements and success potential of upgrading strategies for improving food security in rural Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 841-858, August.
    19. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Vinaya Kumar Hebbsale Mallappa & M. Shivamurthy, 2021. "Factor influencing fishery-based farmers’ perception and their response to climate-induced crisis management," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11766-11791, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; grain production; climate change; production risk; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dominik Noe (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.