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On Bank Credit Risk: Systemic or Bank Specific? Evidence for the United States and United Kingdom

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  • Li, Junye
  • Zinna, Gabriele

Abstract

We develop a multivariate credit risk model that accounts for joint defaults of banks and allows us to disentangle how much of banks’ credit risk is systemic. We find that the United States and United Kingdom differ not only in the evolution of systemic risk but, in particular, in their banks’ systemic exposures. In both countries, however, systemic credit risk varies substantially, represents about half of total bank credit risk on average, and induces high risk premia. The results suggest that sovereign and bank systemic risk are particularly interlinked in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Junye & Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "On Bank Credit Risk: Systemic or Bank Specific? Evidence for the United States and United Kingdom," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1403-1442, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:49:y:2014:i:5-6:p:1403-1442_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2022. "Banking networks, systemic risk, and the credit cycle in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    4. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
    5. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2018. "How Much of Bank Credit Risk Is Sovereign Risk? Evidence from Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1225-1269, September.
    6. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Silva, Felipe Bastos Gurgel, 2021. "Fiscal Deficits, Bank Credit Risk, and Loan-Loss Provisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(5), pages 1537-1589, August.
    8. Sara Cecchetti, 2017. "A quantitative analysis of risk premia in the corporate bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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