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The «burden» of Swiss public debt: Lessons from research and options for the future

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Abstract

The Swiss Federal government finances are in an excellent shape: debt is small (and decreasing), and carries a low interest rate. This paper reviews the prospects for the Swiss finances drawing on the recent literature. We argue that the current policy of running surpluses and paying down the debt is inefficient, and propose three alternatives. First, as the interest rate on the debt is much lower than the GDP growth rate – a pattern that is not unusual – Switzerland could stabilize the debt to GDP ratio and run a primary deficit of abut CHF 2.6 billion (0.37% of GDP). Second, the low cost of debt implies that investments in education and infrastructure are more attractive than in the past. Third, Switzerland could use its implicit asset (the trust of investors) and set up a sovereign wealth fund financed by government debt. We estimate that a fund amounting to 10% of GDP could generate an annual revenue between CHF 0.7 to 2 billion (0.1% to 0.3% of GDP), though these estimates could be refined further.

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  • Cédric Tille, 2019. "The «burden» of Swiss public debt: Lessons from research and options for the future," IHEID Working Papers 14-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 30 Sep 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp14-2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Raphael A Espinoza, 2015. "When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/10, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    5. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2015. "When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/010, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Auerbach, Alan J. & Smetters, Kent (ed.), 2017. "The Economics of Tax Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190619725.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mstislav Afanasyev & Natalia Shash, 2020. "Budget Surplus Management And Fiscal Fine Tuning," Public administration issues, Higher School of Economics, issue 6, pages 84-97.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; low interest rates; sovereign wealth fund; Switzerland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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