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An Estimated Model of a Commodity-Exporting Economy for the Integrated Policy Framework: Evidence from Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Gan-Ochir Doojav

    (Bank of Mongolia)

  • Munkhbayar Gantumur

    (Bank of Mongolia)

Abstract

This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external shocks. We jointly examine the optimal conduct of conventional and unconventional monetary policies, macroprudential policy, foreign exchange intervention, capital flow management, and fiscal policy based on the model. The policy analysis framework is applied empirically to Mongolia, a small open, and developing economy highly dependent on imports and commodity exports. We find that an eclectic policy mix improves policy tradeoffs, and a lack of cooperation among policy authorities may result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results for overall economic stability. Our optimal policy analysis shows that policy mix adjustments should differ depending on the type of shocks and the policy objectives. The results suggest that the policy analysis framework can help policymakers choose their policy mix adjustments to deal with external shocks in an integrated and optimal way.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan-Ochir Doojav & Munkhbayar Gantumur, 2023. "An Estimated Model of a Commodity-Exporting Economy for the Integrated Policy Framework: Evidence from Mongolia," IHEID Working Papers 05-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp05-2023
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Macroprudential policy; Foreign exchange intervention; Fiscal policy; Capital flow management; Optimal policy mix; Open economy macroeconomics; External shocks; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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