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Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment

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  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Eric van Wincoop

    (University of Virginia - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictability reversal puzzle; iv) the Engel puzzle (high interest rate currencies are stronger than implied by UIP); v) the forward guidance exchange rate puzzle; vi) the absence of a forward discount puzzle with long-term bonds. These results are derived analytically in a simple two-country model with portfolio adjustment costs. Quantitatively, this approach can match all targeted moments related to these puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2019. "Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1935
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    Cited by:

    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Tièche, Simon & van Wincoop, Eric, 2020. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Davenport, Margaret & van Wincoop, Eric, 2022. "Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Romain Lafarguette & Arnaud Mehl, 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 1914, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Heipertz, Jonas & Mihov, Ilian & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2022. "Managing macroeconomic fluctuations with flexible exchange rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Rong Li & Dongzhou Mei & Bing Tong, 2024. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Open Market Operations," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    10. Lei, Jian, 2021. "Curve momentum in currency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    11. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Yang, Xiaoliang, 2023. "Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Fabienne Schneider, 2024. "On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access," Working Papers 24.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    13. André, Marine-Charlotte & Traficante, Guido, 2020. "Forward Guidance in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 104600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Munkhbayar Gantumur, 2023. "An estimated model of a commodity-exporting economy for the integrated policy framework: evidence from Mongolia," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 651-708, October.
    15. Ortiz, Marco & Miyahara, Ken, 2022. "Portfolio shocks and the financial accelerator in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 114224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 465-496, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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