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Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Vegard H ghaug Larsen
  • Junior Maih

Abstract

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatilityof macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocksare recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H ghaug Larsen & Junior Maih, 2017. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Papers No 6/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0055
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Great Moderation; New-Keynesian model; Markov Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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