IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/geb/wpaper/2022-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Connectedness of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Sadettin Haluk Citci

    (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University)

  • Hüseyin Kaya

    (Department of Economics, Istanbul Medeniyet University)

Abstract

In this study, we theoretically and empirically examine the connectedness of exchange rate uncertainty and inflation. In a small open economy setting with a flexible exchange rate and monopolistically competitive imported final goods sector, we show that price rigidities cause importers to carry exchange rate risk and they impose a premium for the risk they face by increasing consumer prices. This pricing behavior provides a channel between exchange rate uncertainty and overall price level. Then, we empirically analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation by using panel data from 149 countries over the period 19802017. The estimation results point that the uncertainty of the exchange rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation. Moreover, the degree of exchange rate pass-through and the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation differ among country groups and their effects on inflation have decreased through time. We also show that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation is non-monotonic.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadettin Haluk Citci & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Connectedness of Inflation," Working Papers 2022-01, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:geb:wpaper:2022-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gtu.edu.tr/fileman/Files/UserFiles/isletme_fakultesi_dekanligi/econwp/gtuwp-2022-01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    4. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    9. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    10. Boris Blagov, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1537-1572, November.
    11. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    12. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    13. Anderton, Robert & Skudelny, Frauke, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports," Working Paper Series 64, European Central Bank.
    14. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    15. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rebei, Nooman, 2008. "Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-267, July.
    16. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    17. Anderton, R. & Skudelny, F., 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Euro Area Imports," Papers 64, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    18. Gibbons, Robert & Murphy, Kevin J, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 468-505, June.
    19. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Why Do Consumer Prices React Less Than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 662-670, 04/05.
    20. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2002. "Comment on: Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 941-946, July.
    22. Agathe Côté, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
    23. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    24. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    25. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange‐Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    27. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2010. "The Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates: Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and Trade Exposure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 392-407, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heni Boubaker & Ben Saad Zorgati Mouna, 2024. "Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-30, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ozkan, Ibrahim & Erden, Lutfi, 2015. "Time-varying nature and macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate pass-through," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 56-66.
    2. Boris Blagov, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1537-1572, November.
    3. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    4. Safet Kurtović & Blerim Halili & Nehat Maxhuni, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: evidence from Central and Southeast European countries," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 51-80, June.
    5. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    6. Chatri, Abdellatif & Maarouf, Abdelwahab & Ragbi, Aziz, 2016. "Pass-through du taux de change aux prix au Maroc [An empirical investigation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Morocco]," MPRA Paper 71757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Ayako Saiki, 2015. "The Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Some European Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 893-909, November.
    9. Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky & Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Nils O Maehle, 2012. "The Relationship Between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa," IMF Working Papers 2012/148, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
    11. Chou, K.W., 2019. "Re-examining the time-varying nature and determinants of exchange rate pass-through into import prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-351.
    12. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "Revisiting the pass-through of exchange rate in the transition economies: New evidence from new EU member states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Tunisia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/319, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Claire Giordano, 2023. "Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1329-1384, September.
    16. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    17. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Rancière & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development," Economics Working Papers 850, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    18. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    19. A. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2018. "Quality pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 87-102.
    20. F. V. Vieira & M. Holland & C. Gomes da Silva & L. C. Bottecchia, 2013. "Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3733-3741, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate uncertainty; inflation; pricing power; exchange rate passthrough;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:geb:wpaper:2022-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abdullah Altun (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgyttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.