IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upf/upfgen/850.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Aghion
  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Romain Rancière
  • Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Rancière & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development," Economics Working Papers 850, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:850
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/850.pdf
    File Function: Whole Paper
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    9. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
    11. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    12. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    13. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    15. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    16. Loayza, Norman V. & Oviedo, Ana Maria & Serven, Luis, 2005. "Regulation and macroeconomic performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3469, The World Bank.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222.
    18. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    19. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2005. "Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital-Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 042005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Aghion, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2005. "Volatility and Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248612.
    21. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    22. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    23. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    25. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    26. Maurice Obstfeld, 2006. "Pricing-to-Market, the Interest-Rate Rule, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 12699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    29. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2005. "Rational speculation and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-29, January.
    30. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    32. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    33. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Chahir Zaki, 2016. "Does Exchange Rate Undervaluation Matter for Exports and Trade Margins? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Working Papers 1004, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2016.
    3. Laura Alfaro & Areendam Chanda & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Selin Sayek, 2006. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_023, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    4. Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Grooming Classifications: Exchange Rate Regimes and Growth in Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 54473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 513-517.
    6. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
    7. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    8. Rodolfo Cermeño & María José Roa, 2013. "Desarrollo financiero, crecimiento y volatidad: Revisión de la literatura reciente," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 9, CEMLA.
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the 2000s: A Latin American Perspective," Business School Working Papers exchangerate, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    11. Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky & Qianqian Zhang, 2015. "A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/195, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Brezeanu, Petre & Huidumac, Catalin & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "The Drivers of the CEE Exchange Rate Volatility - Empirical Perspective in the context of the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 212-229, March.
    13. Arratibel, Olga & Martin, Reiner & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank.
    14. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Roa García & Claudio González-Vega, 2012. "Financial Development and Volatility of Growth: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and USA," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_035, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Rodolfo Cermeño Bazán & María Roa García & Claudio González Vega, 2012. "Financial Development and Growth Volatility: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and The United States," Working Papers DTE 544, CIDE, División de Economía.
    18. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    19. Kadia Besart, 2015. "†Fear of Floating†in Albania and Economic Growth," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 19-32, June,.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    2. Abdelraouf, Nadine & Noureldin, Diaa, 2022. "The impact of the exchange rate regime on the dispersion of the price-change distribution: Evidence from a large panel of countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Kenza Benhima, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 501-529, July.
    4. Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2017. "The growth effects of financial openness and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 492-512.
    5. De Vita, Glauco, 2014. "The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-233.
    6. Tarkan Cavusoglu, 2009. "Growth effects of currency mismatches: evidence from emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1677-1690.
    7. Gaies, Brahim & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2020. "Does financial globalization still spur growth in emerging and developing countries? Considering exchange rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers halshs-02175361, HAL.
    9. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    10. Ahlin, Christian & Pang, Jiaren, 2008. "Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 414-433, June.
    11. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Alberto Cavallo, 2008. "Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth? The Role of Political Institutions," Research Department Publications 4589, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Cavallo, Alberto F. & Cavallo, Eduardo A., 2010. "Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-857, September.
    13. Eozenou, Patrick, 2008. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility: Does Financial Development Matter?," MPRA Paper 12738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    15. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2004. "Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries," Working Papers 2005:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kunieda, Takuma & Okada, Keisuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Corruption, Globalization, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 35355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    18. Sula, Ozan & Oguzoglu, Umut, 2021. "International reserves and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 16-28.
    19. Calderon, Cesar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2003. "Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 895-923, December.
    20. Martinsson, Gustav, 2009. "Finance and R&D Investments - is there a debt overhang effect on R&D investments?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 174, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity growth; exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:850. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.