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Information and Normal Backwardationas Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence form North-Sea Oil Forward Market

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  • Phillips, G.M.
  • Weiner, R.J.

Abstract

This paper utilizes transaction-specific data on forward trading in the international petroleum market to test directly predictions from the theory of normal backwardation against information-based predictions of trader performance. With the ability to identify buyers and sellers, the authors find that no traders make significant profits on interday measures. Within the day, however, traders likely to have superior information make significant profits. The results are not supportive of normal backwardation but are consistent with the time pattern of information dissemination in this market--deals made during the day are widely reported only at day's end. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.
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Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, G.M. & Weiner, R.J., 1993. "Information and Normal Backwardationas Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence form North-Sea Oil Forward Market," Papers 93-101, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:purkib:93-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    2. Tanga McDaniel & Neuhoff, K., 2002. "Use of Long-term Auctions for Network Investment," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0213, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Nicole M. Moran & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Trader Returns and Risk Premiums in Agricultural Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 611-652, December.
    4. Robert Weiner, 2006. "Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market," RFF Working Paper Series dp-06-31, Resources for the Future.
    5. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    6. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    7. Weiner, Robert J., 2002. "Sheep in wolves' clothing? Speculators and price volatility in petroleum futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 391-400.
    8. Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    10. Dennis Dittrich & Boris Maciejovsky, "undated". "Information Dissemination on Asset Markets with Endogenous and Exogenous Information: An Experimental Approacha," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-03, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.

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    Keywords

    petroleum markets ; information;

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