IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/priwdp/23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Note On Revenue Forecastingduring The Dukakis Administration

Author

Listed:
  • FEENBERG, D.R.
  • ROSEN, H.S.

Abstract

Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual? in the sense that on average, revenue forecasts produced by his administration have been too low rather than too high. In addition, we find that there is no significant difference between the quality of the Dukakis forecasts and those of his predecessors in Massachusetts. Hence, those who seek to discover anything extraordinarily positive or negative about Dukakis? managerial capabilities should shift their attention to skills other than revenue forecasting.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Feenberg, D.R. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "A Note On Revenue Forecastingduring The Dukakis Administration," Papers 23, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:priwdp:23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ignacio Lago-Peñas & Santiago Lago-Peñas, "undated". "Explaining Budgetary Indiscipline: Evidence From Spanish Municipalities," Working Papers 21-04 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
    2. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
    3. Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    4. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    5. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    6. Jorn Rattso, 1999. "Aggregate local public sector investment and shocks: Norway 1946 - 1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 577-584.
    7. Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909(14á.)-9, Diciembre.
    8. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, September.
    9. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    10. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    11. Orazem, Peter F, 2017. "An Evaluation of the State of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017," ISU General Staff Papers 201712010800001036, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    13. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. H. Naci Mocan, 2001. "Can Consumers Detect Lemons? Information Asymmetry in the Market for Child Care," NBER Working Papers 8291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Naci Mocan, 2007. "Can consumers detect lemons? An empirical analysis of information asymmetry in the market for child care," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(4), pages 743-780, October.
    16. Stanislav Klazar, 2006. "Tax Revenue Prediction under Condition of Imperfect Control over Tax-Collecting Authority [Predikce daňových příjmů v podmínkách nedokonalé kontroly daňových úřadů]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 48-62.
    17. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
    18. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    19. Barbara Batóg & Jacek Batóg, 2021. "Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    21. Florian Chatagny & Nils Soguel, 2012. "The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 319-337, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:priwdp:23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wwprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.