IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/tmddps/104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?

Author

Listed:
  • Roe, Terry
  • Somwaru, Agapi
  • Diao, Xinshen

Abstract

The question whether production flexibility payments to farmers are likely to be minimally trade distorting is considered in an inter-temporal and economy wide context. Our contribution lies in showing the circumstances, over time, under which a minimally trade distorting result is likely to obtain. If agricultural capital markets are complete, we find that payments have long run effects on land values and land rental rates, but they have no effect on production. If capital markets are not complete, we find production effects, but they are small (0.2 percent) in the short run and disappear in the long-run. The only permanent effects are on land rental rates and land values that increase by about 10 percent in the short run tapering off to slightly above 8 percent in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi & Diao, Xinshen, 2002. "Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?," TMD discussion papers 104, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/59879/filename/59880.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Information and Economic Analysis: A Perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 21-41, Supplemen.
    2. Hirshleifer, David, 1988. "Risk, Futures Pricing, and the Organization of Production in Commodity Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1206-1220, December.
    3. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Arathi Bhaskar & John C. Beghin, 2010. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 849-858.
    3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2003. "Acreage Effects Of Decoupled Programs At The Extensive Margin," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22254, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Key, Nigel D. & Roberts, Robert J., 2008. "Do Decoupled Payments Stimulate Production? Estimating the Effect on Program Crop Acreage Using Matching," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6072, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Girante, Maria Joana & Goodwin, Barry K. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Farmers' Crop Acreage Decisions in the Presence of Credit Constraints: Do Decoupled Payments Matter?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6335, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Updating Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 7350, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Barrett E. Kirwan & Michael J. Roberts, 2016. "Who Really Benefits from Agricultural Subsidies? Evidence from Field-level Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1095-1113.
    8. El-Osta, Hisham S., 2011. "The Impact of Human Capital on Farm Operator Household Income," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    10. Samiul Haque & Kenneth A. Foster & Roman Keeney & Kathryn A. Boys & Badri G. Narayanan, 2019. "Output and input bias effects of U.S. direct payments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(2), pages 229-236, March.
    11. Ehmke, Mariah D. & Nagler, Amy M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Bastian, Christopher T. & Young, C. Edwin, 2010. "Is Agricultural Policy Decoupling against Human Nature? Experimental Evidence of Fairness Expectations’ Contributions to Payment Incidence," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61645, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Roe, Terry L., 2003. "Markets, Trade And The Role Of Institutions In African Development," Conference Papers 28069, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    13. O'Donoghue, Erik J. & Whitaker, James B., 2006. "How distorting are direct payments?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Bamou, Ernest & Bamou Tankoua, Lydie & Tchanou, Jean Pierre, 2006. "Trade and Investment Policy Reforms in Cameroon: Impact Assessment and Perspectives," Conference papers 331443, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Collender, Robert N. & Diao, Xinshen & Harrington, David H. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Korb, Penelope J. & Makki, Shiva S. & Morehart, Mitchell J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Roe, Terry L. , 2004. "Decoupled Payments In A Changing Policy Setting," Agricultural Economic Reports 33981, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Li, NaiChia & Roe, Terry L., 2006. "Validating Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Forecasts," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21325, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Zbranek, Peter & Fandel, Peter, 2015. "Development of productivity and its components in Slovak agriculture before and after EU accession: Analysis of the impact of CAP introduction on the performance indicators of Slovak crop and livestoc," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207353, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Collender, Robert N. & Diao, Xinshen & Harrington, David H. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Korb, Penelope J. & Makki, Shiva S. & Morehart, Mitchell J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Roe, Terry L. , 2004. "Decoupled Payments In A Changing Policy Setting," Agricultural Economic Reports 33981, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Bamou, Ernest & Bamou Tankoua, Lydie & Tchanou, Jean Pierre, 2006. "Trade and Investment Policy Reforms in Cameroon: Impact Assessment and Perspectives," Conference papers 331443, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    4. Cherchye, L. & Post, G.T., 2001. "Methodological Advances in Dea," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-53-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Olivier Favereau, 1989. "Marchés internes, marchés externes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(2), pages 273-328.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11383 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kherallah, Mylène & Kirsten, Johann, 2001. "The new institutional economics," MSSD discussion papers 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Xinxin Ma & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does communist party membership bring a wage premium in China? a meta-analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 55-94, January.
    9. Pennings, Joost M. E. & Heijman, Willem J. M., 1995. "Prospects for an electricity futures market A comment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 283-284, December.
    10. Frechette, Darren L., 2003. "The Potential Value of Agricultural Trade Options," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-12, October.
    11. Ren'e Aid & Ofelia Bonesini & Giorgia Callegaro & Luciano Campi, 2021. "A McKean-Vlasov game of commodity production, consumption and trading," Papers 2111.04391, arXiv.org.
    12. von Witzke, H., 1991. "Europäischer Binnenmarkt: Auswirkungen auf die Politikgestaltung und die internationale Arbeitsteilung," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 27.
    13. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    14. Alberto Chong & Virgilio Galdo & Máximo Torero, 2009. "Access to Telephone Services and Household Income in Poor Rural Areas Using a Quasi‐natural Experiment for Peru," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(304), pages 623-648, October.
    15. Joseph E. Stiglitz & Bruce Greenwald, 1992. "Towards a Reformulation of Monetary Theory: Competitive Banking," NBER Working Papers 4117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bullock, J. Bruce, 1986. "Risk of What?," Working Papers 256565, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    17. Chieh-Peng Lin & Yuan-Hui Tsai & Sheng-Wuu Joe & Chou-Kang Chiu, 2013. "Modeling IT product recall intention based on the theory of reasoned action and information asymmetry: a qualitative aspect," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-759, February.
    18. Pennings, Joost M. E., 2004. "A marketing-finance approach towards industrial channel contract relationships: a model and application," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 601-609, June.
    19. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    20. Kristine Watson Hankins, 2011. "How Do Financial Firms Manage Risk? Unraveling the Interaction of Financial and Operational Hedging," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2197-2212, December.
    21. Norton, George W., 1987. "Evaluating Social Science Research in Agriculture," Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52 50028, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.