IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fir/econom/wp2020_02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

In medio stat filius. The relationship between time preferences and fertility

Author

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Time discounting preference (TDP) is a trait indicating to what extent individuals prefer immediate but lower benefits versus future but higher benefits. It can also be interpreted as the inclination to be more or less impatient. TDP has been found to influence different human decisions, including health behaviour and schooling investments. This study is the first that explores whether this trait represents a determinant of fertility. BACKGROUND: Fertility decisions, like all life actions, imply a balancing of anticipated costs and benefits the expectations for which are formed under uncertainty. Fertility research has addressed a multitude of ‘backward’ correlates (socio-demographic or biological factors) of fertility decisions. Yet, the role of ‘forward’ factors, such as TDP, has never been explored. METHOD: Unique data from the panel component of the Survey of Household Income and Wealth carried out by the Bank of Italy every two years were used. We applied logistic regression models using a question included in the 2004, 2008, 2010 and 2012 waves to examine whether, net of backward factors, impatience affects first (N=760) and second (N=1284) parity progressions. RESULTS: Findings indicate an inversed U-shape relationship between impatience and the probability of the transition to the first and the second child. For very patient and for very impatient individuals the probability of having a child is lower than for those with intermediate levels of impatience. CONCLUSION: The empirical findings point to the need to consider TDP in fertility research so as to gain a more complete understanding of fertility behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "In medio stat filius. The relationship between time preferences and fertility," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2020_02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://labdisia.disia.unifi.it/wp_disia/2020/wp_disia_2020_02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020-01
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bart H.H. Golsteyn & Hans Grönqvist & Lena Lindahl, 2014. "Adolescent Time Preferences Predict Lifetime Outcomes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(580), pages 739-761, November.
    2. Becker, Gary S, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1063-1093, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Francesco C. Billari & Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Italians Are Late: Does It Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 371-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Harvey Goldstein & Michael J. R. Healy, 1995. "The Graphical Presentation of a Collection of Means," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(1), pages 175-177, January.
    6. Lex Borghans & Angela Lee Duckworth & James J. Heckman & Bas ter Weel, 2008. "The Economics and Psychology of Personality Traits," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    7. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    8. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Paolo Sestito, 2017. "Trust, risk and time preferences: evidence from survey data," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 64(4), pages 367-388, December.
    9. Christy Spivey, 2010. "Desperation Or Desire? The Role Of Risk Aversion In Marriage," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(2), pages 499-516, April.
    10. Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Risk preferences and the timing of marriage and childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 439-460, May.
    11. Debra Friedman & Michael Hechter & Satoshi Kanazawa, 1994. "A theory of the value of children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 375-401, August.
    12. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Maria Castiglioni & Alessandro Rosina, 2009. "Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(23), pages 681-718.
    13. Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, 2001. "The banquet of Aeolus," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(5), pages 133-162.
    14. Alessandra De Rose & Filomena Racioppi & Anna Laura Zanatta, 2008. "Italy: Delayed adaptation of social institutions to changes in family behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(19), pages 665-704.
    15. Berns, Gregory S. & Loewenstein, George & Laibson, David I., 2007. "Intertemporal Choice - Toward an Integrative Framework," Scholarly Articles 4554332, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    16. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Chiara Ludovica Comolli & Alessandro Rosina, 2017. "The effect of the Great Recession on permanent childlessness in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(20), pages 635-668.
    17. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    18. Vegard Skirbekk, 2008. "Fertility trends by social status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(5), pages 145-180.
    19. Maria Paola & Francesca Gioia, 2017. "Does patience matter in marriage stability? Some evidence from Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 549-577, June.
    20. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Paolo Sestito, 2013. "Trust and preferences: evidence from survey data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 911, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Laura E. Hill & Hans P. Johnson, 2004. "Fertility Changes Among Immigrants: Generations, Neighborhoods, and Personal Characteristics," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(3), pages 811-827, September.
    22. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
    23. Daniele Vignoli & Sven Drefahl & Gustavo De Santis, 2012. "Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(2), pages 41-62.
    24. Le Moglie, Marco & Mencarini, Letizia & Rapallini, Chiara, 2015. "Is it just a matter of personality? On the role of subjective well-being in childbearing behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 453-475.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(50), pages 1185-1228.
    2. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    3. Bastian Mönkediek & Hilde Bras, 2018. "Family Systems and Fertility Intentions: Exploring the Pathways of Influence," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 33-57, February.
    4. Preuss, Malte, 2021. "Intra-individual stability of two survey measures on forward-looking attitude," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 201-227.
    5. Christian König-Kersting & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2023. "Grit, Discounting, & Time Inconsistency," Working Papers 2023-12, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    7. Giulia Ferrari & Alessandro Rosina & Emiliano Sironi, 2014. "Beyond Good Intentions: The Decision-Making Process of Leaving the Family of Origin in Italy," Working Papers 060, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    8. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Chiara Ludovica Comolli & Alessandro Rosina, 2017. "The effect of the Great Recession on permanent childlessness in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(20), pages 635-668.
    9. Schmitt, Christian, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty, precarious employment, and risk attitudes on the transition to parenthood," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47, pages 1-1.
    10. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino, 2021. "Risk aversion and fertility. Evidence from a lottery question in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Faralla, Valeria & Novarese, Marco & Ardizzone, Antonella, 2017. "Framing Effects in Intertemporal Choice: A Nudge Experiment," MPRA Paper 82086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Anke Becker & Thomas Deckers & Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2012. "The Relationship Between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 453-478, July.
    13. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Diego Jorrat & Antonio M. Espín & Angel Sánchez, 2023. "Paid and hypothetical time preferences are the same: lab, field and online evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 412-434, April.
    14. Jacobs Martin, 2016. "Accounting for Changing Tastes: Approaches to Explaining Unstable Individual Preferences," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(2), pages 121-183, August.
    15. Daniele Vignli & Letizia Mencarini & Giammarco Alderotti, 2018. "Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?," Working Papers 114, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    16. Anke Becker & Thomas Deckers & Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2012. "The Relationship Between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 453-478, July.
    17. James M. Vardaman & Shannon G. Taylor & David G. Allen & Maria B. Gondo & John M. Amis, 2015. "Translating Intentions to Behavior: The Interaction of Network Structure and Behavioral Intentions in Understanding Employee Turnover," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 1177-1191, August.
    18. Fadong Chen & Jiehui Zheng & Lei Wang & Ian Krajbich, 2024. "Attribute latencies causally shape intertemporal decisions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Elena Lagomarsino & Alessandro Spiganti, 2023. "Risk Aversion and the Size of Desired Debt," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(1), pages 369-396, March.
    20. Jansen, Anika & Pfeifer, Harald & Raecke, Julia, 2017. "Only the brave? Risk and time preferences of decision makers and firms’ investment in worker training," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Time-Discounting Preferences; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2020_02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Cipollini (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsfirit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.