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Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

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  • Bulent Guler
  • Amanda M. Michaud

Abstract

We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. experience after 1980. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes, with unequal impacts across generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Guler & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98972
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.101
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality trends; incarceration; Dynamic policy evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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