IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmem/124.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Markov switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Pok-san Lam

Abstract

We use a regime-switching model of real GNP growth to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. The model extends Hamilton (1989) and Durland and McCurdy (1994) and is estimated using both the postwar NIPA data and the secular data constructed by Balke-Gordon. We find that an expansion is more likely to end at a young age, that a contraction is more likely to end at an old age, that output growth slows over the course of an expansion, that a decline in output is mild at the beginning of a contraction, and that long expansions are followed by long contractions. This evidence taken together provides no support for the clustering of the whole-cycle around seven-to-ten year durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pok-san Lam, 1997. "A Markov switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 124, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=740
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/DP/DP124.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
    2. Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Equity, credit and the business cycle," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 939-954, June.
    3. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    2. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth: explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    3. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Moore's Law and Learning-By-Doing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 346-375, April.
    4. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2012. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1097-1106, November.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset prices: a look back at past U.S. stock market booms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 19-44.
    6. Kim Abildgren, 2016. "A century of macro-financial linkages," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 458-471, November.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    8. Luca Benati, 2017. "Cointegration Tests and the Classical Dichotomy," Diskussionsschriften dp1704, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Farhat, Abdeljelil & Hallin, Marc, 2006. "Distribution-free bounds for serial correlation coefficients in heteroskedastic symmetric time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 123-142, January.
    10. Margaret M. Jacobson & Eric M. Leeper & Bruce Preston, 2019. "Recovery of 1933," NBER Working Papers 25629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
    12. J. Peter Ferderer, 1994. "Credibility of the Interwar Gold Standard, Uncertainty, and the Great Depression," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_102, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Mark Wheeler & Susan Pozo, 1997. "Is the world economy more integrated today than a century ago?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 139-154, June.
    14. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    15. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "Expectations, monetary policy, and labor markets: lessons from the Great Depression," Kiel Working Papers 1543, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Gordon, Robert J., 2005. "The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5412, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Lee, Jim, 2006. "The comovement between output and prices: Evidence from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 110-116, April.
    18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-162, Winter.
    19. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth : explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    20. James Lothian, 2011. "Why Money Matters: A Fourth Natural Experiment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 179-187, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross national product; Business cycles;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jannelle Ruswick (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.