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Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series

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  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie
  • FARHAT, Abdeljelil
  • HALLIN, Marc

Abstract

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

Suggested Citation

  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & FARHAT, Abdeljelil & HALLIN, Marc, 2005. "Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 05-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:05-2005
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    1. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    2. Dufour, J.M., 1988. "Non-Uniform Bounds for Nonparametric T Tests," Cahiers de recherche 8820, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Farhat, Abdeljelil & Hallin, Marc, 2006. "Distribution-free bounds for serial correlation coefficients in heteroskedastic symmetric time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 123-142, January.
    4. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Roy, Roch, 1985. "Some robust exact results on sample autocorrelations and tests of randomness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 257-273, September.
    6. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Hallin, Marc, 1991. "Nonuniform Bounds for Nonparametric t-Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 253-263, June.
    7. Jean‐Marie Dufour, 1981. "Rank Tests For Serial Dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 117-128, May.
    8. Jean‐Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    9. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1990. "Exact Tests and Confidence Sets in Linear Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 475-494, March.
    10. Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Improved Eaton Bounds for Linear Combinations of Bounded Random Variables , with Statistical Applications," Papers 9104, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
    11. Marc Hallin & Madan Lal Puri, 1992. "Rank tests for time-series analysis: a survey," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2229, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Simple Exact Bounds For Distributions Of Linear Signed Rank Statistics," Cahiers de recherche 9003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
    14. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-173, February.
    15. Jean-Marie Dufour & Jan F. Kiviet, 1998. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 79-104, January.
    16. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    17. Dufour, J.M., 1979. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 7815, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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    1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Farhat, Abdeljelil & Hallin, Marc, 2006. "Distribution-free bounds for serial correlation coefficients in heteroskedastic symmetric time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 123-142, January.
    2. Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2020. "Regression discontinuity designs, white noise models, and minimax," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 587-608.
    3. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    4. Aguilar, Mike & Hill, Jonathan B., 2015. "Robust score and portmanteau tests of volatility spillover," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 37-61.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    autocorrelation; serial dependence; nonparametric test; distribution-free test; heterogeneity; heteroskedasticity; symmetric distribution; robustness; exact test; bound; exponential bound; large deviations; Chebyshev inequality; Berry-Esséen; interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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