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Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?

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  • Victoria Gregory

Abstract

This paper identifies workers who experience a job separation during a recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less-educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared to in the Great Recession. In addition, statuses were more persistent during the Great Recession: for both exiters and non-exiters the majority were in the same labor force status a year later. I then use the patterns of these samples of job-separators to estimate the propensity of being re-employed in a year and apply the estimates to the general out-of-work pools during the two recessions. I find that changes in the likelihood of being re-employed as well as the composition of individuals out of work are important for understanding the differences between the labor market in the two recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Gregory, 2022. "Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?," Working Papers 2022-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94809
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.027
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.20955/r.105.9-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Coglianese, John, 2021. "Projecting unemployment durations: A factor-flows simulation approach with application to the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 25625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza Forsythe, 2023. "Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(1), pages 30-55, January.
    5. Eliza Forsythe & Lisa B. Kahn & Fabian Lange & David G. Wiczer, 2020. "Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Samuel Jordan-Wood, 2024. "Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(1), pages 40-58, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    job separations; recessions; labor force; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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