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Money and activity in the U.K. 1961-1983: surprise? surprise!

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  • K. Alec Chrystal
  • David Peel

Abstract

This is a study of the impact of money growth and money growth surprises on U.K. real activity (GDP and unemployment). We find no support for the 'only surprises have real effects' story except in the 1960s when the fixed exchange rate regime makes exogeneity of money questionable. Some support is found for the older monetarist view that lagged actual money growth has real effects. Our most surprising result is that U.S. M1 growth outperforms both U.K. M1 and sterling M3 as a determinant of U.K. real activity in the floating exchange rate period.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Alec Chrystal & David Peel, 1984. "Money and activity in the U.K. 1961-1983: surprise? surprise!," Working Papers 1984-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1984-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    4. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
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