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Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

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Abstract

Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Nils M. Gornemann & Julio L. Ortiz, 2024. "Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1397, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1397
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2024.1397
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Excess Savings; Precautionary Savings; Consumption Risk; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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