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Home Country Interest Rates and International Investment in U.S. Bonds

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We analyze how interest rates affect cross-border portfolio investments. Data on U.S. bond holdings by foreign investors from 31 countries for the period 2003 - 2016 and a large variety in movements in interest rates in these countries provide for a unique way to analyze shifts in investment behavior in response to interest rates. We find that low(er) interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, lead to greater investment in general into the United States, with the effects generally driven by investment in (higher yielding) corporate bonds, rather than in Treasury bonds. In addition to affecting overall investments, lower interest rates at home are associated with a greater weight on corporate bonds, consistent with search- for-yield. The results are economically important and robust to controlling for a number of country-specific macroeconomic and financial conditions as well as to sample restrictions and choices of interest rate. Our findings have important policy implications in that they suggest that low interest rates can lead to shifts in the volume and composition of overseas investments.

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  • John Ammer & Stijn Claessens & Alexandra M. Tabova & Caleb Wroblewski, 2018. "Home Country Interest Rates and International Investment in U.S. Bonds," International Finance Discussion Papers 1231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1231
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1231
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    7. Tri Wahyu Adi & Eri Prabowo & Oetami Prasadjaningsih, 2022. "Influence of Electricity Consumption of Industrial and Business, Electricity Price, Inflation and Interest Rate on GDP and Investments in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 331-340, May.
    8. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Youngjin Yun, 2020. "Post-crisis changes in the pattern of capital flows - The case of Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 601-611.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
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    13. Faris Alshubiri, 2022. "The Impact of the Real Interest Rate, the Exchange Rate and Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A Comparative Analysis of G7 and GCC Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 569-603, September.
    14. Kirik, Alper & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2022. "Winds of tapering, financial gravity and COVID-19," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low interest rates; Search-for-yield; Portfolio choice; Safe and risky assets; U.S. bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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