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Home Country Interest Rates and International Investment in U.S. Bonds

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We analyze how interest rates affect cross-border portfolio investments. Data on U.S. bond holdings by foreign investors from 31 countries for the period 2003 - 2016 and a large variety in movements in interest rates in these countries provide for a unique way to analyze shifts in investment behavior in response to interest rates. We find that low(er) interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, lead to greater investment in general into the United States, with the effects generally driven by investment in (higher yielding) corporate bonds, rather than in Treasury bonds. In addition to affecting overall investments, lower interest rates at home are associated with a greater weight on corporate bonds, consistent with search- for-yield. The results are economically important and robust to controlling for a number of country-specific macroeconomic and financial conditions as well as to sample restrictions and choices of interest rate. Our findings have important policy implications in that they suggest that low interest rates can lead to shifts in the volume and composition of overseas investments.

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  • John Ammer & Stijn Claessens & Alexandra M. Tabova & Caleb Wroblewski, 2018. "Home Country Interest Rates and International Investment in U.S. Bonds," International Finance Discussion Papers 1231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1231
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1231
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    2. Youngjin Yun, 2022. "Cross‐border bank flows through foreign branches and the effect of a macroprudential policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 83-104, May.
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    6. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Youngjin Yun, 2020. "Post-crisis changes in the pattern of capital flows - The case of Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 601-611.
    8. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    9. Gylych Jelilov & Bilal Celik & Yusuf Adamu, 2020. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Response to Monetary Policy Decisions in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(3), pages 166-166, March.
    10. Galvez, Julio & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mayordomo, Sergio & Serena, Jose Maria, 2021. "Dollar borrowing, firm credit risk, and FX-hedged funding opportunities," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Wei, Xiaobo & Mohsin, Muhammad & Zhang, Qiongxin, 2022. "Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 828-837.
    12. Faris Alshubiri, 2022. "The Impact of the Real Interest Rate, the Exchange Rate and Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A Comparative Analysis of G7 and GCC Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 569-603, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low interest rates; Search-for-yield; Portfolio choice; Safe and risky assets; U.S. bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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