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International capital flows at the security level: evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme

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  • Fidora, Michael
  • Schmitz, Martin
  • Bergant, Katharina

Abstract

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Based on net transactions of domestic and foreign securities, we observe euro area sectors' capital flows into individual securities, cleaned from valuation effects. Our empirical analysis – which accounts for security-level characteristics – shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and households) actively rebalanced away from securities targeted under the Public Sector Purchase Programme and other euro-denominated debt securities, towards foreign debt instruments, including ‘closest substitutes’, i.e. certain sovereign debt securities issued by non-euro area advanced countries. This rebalancing was particularly strong during the first six quarters of the programme. Our analysis also reveals marked differences across sectors as well as country groups within the euro area, suggesting that quantitative easing has induced heterogeneous portfolio shifts. JEL Classification: F21, F42, E52, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Fidora, Michael & Schmitz, Martin & Bergant, Katharina, 2020. "International capital flows at the security level: evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2388, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202388
    Note: 491968
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    Cited by:

    1. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    2. Picón Aguilar, Carmen & Soares, Rodrigo Oliveira & Adalid, Ramón, 2020. "Revisiting the monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments," Occasional Paper Series 238, European Central Bank.
    3. Daniel Carvalho & Martin Schmitz, 2023. "Shifts in the portfolio holdings of euro area investors in the midst of COVID‐19: Looking‐through investment funds," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1641-1687, November.
    4. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    5. Fabian Eser & Wolfgang Lemke & Ken Nyholm & Sören Radde & Andreea Liliana Vladu, 2023. "Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 359-422, August.
    6. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    8. Carvalho, Daniel & Schmitz, Martin, 2022. "Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum," Working Paper Series 2734, European Central Bank.
    9. Stephanos Papadamou & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, April.
    10. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    12. Tom Hudepohl, 2022. "The rebalancing channel of QE: New evidence at the security level in the euro area," Working Papers 756, DNB.
    13. Beck, Roland & Coppola, Antonio & Lewis, Angus & Maggiori, Matteo & Schmitz, Martin & Schreger, Jesse, 2023. "The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area," Research Papers 4102, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    14. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy and TARGET balances: A trilogy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Ledóchowski, Michał & Żuk, Piotr, 2022. "What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed's and ECB's balance sheet policies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    16. Philip R. Lane, 2019. "Globalisation: A Macro-Financial Perspective," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 249-263.
    17. Carvalho, Daniel, 2022. "The portfolio holdings of euro area investors: Looking through investment funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Martijn Boermans, 2022. "A literature review of securities holdings statistics research and a practitioner’s guide," Working Papers 757, DNB.
    19. Hielke Van Doorslaer & Mattias Vermeiren, 2021. "Pushing on a String: Monetary Policy, Growth Models and the Persistence of Low Inflation in Advanced Capitalism," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 797-816, September.
    20. Katharina Bergant & Martin Schmitz, 2019. "International financial flows and the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme: evidence from b.o.p and security by security data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; international investment patterns; investor heterogeneity; quantitative easing; sovereign debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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