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Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector

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Abstract

Rising interest rates and structural shifts in the demand for space have strained CRE markets and prompted concern about contagion to the largest CRE debt holder: banks. We use confidential loan-level data on bank CRE portfolios to examine banks' exposure to at-risk CRE loans. We investigate (1) what loan characteristics are associated with delinquency and (2) to what extent the portfolio composition of major CRE lenders determines their exposure to losses. Higher LTVs, larger property sizes, and greater local remote work tendencies are all associated with increased delinquency risk, particularly for office loans. We use several machine learning algorithms to demonstrate that variation in exposure to these risk factors can account for most of the performance disparity across different types of CRE lenders. The headline result is that small banks' comparatively modest delinquency rates mostly reflect observable portfolio characteristics---predominantly their low holdings of large-sized office loans---rather than unobserved factors like extension or modification tendencies.

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  • David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman, 2024. "Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-72
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Glancy & Robert Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein & Joseph Nichols, 2023. "Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1108-1136, September.
    2. David Glancy & Robert Kurtzman, 2022. "How Do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 88-127.
    3. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial real estate; Banks; CMBS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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